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Sha Tin · 2021-03-21

Race 3

Class 3 GOOD 2000m Course A 11 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2021-03-21 was Class 3 over 2000m, run on GOOD going. CHARITY FUN, ridden by Z Purton and trained by C S Shum, won by 1-1/4, with PAKISTAN FRIEND second and ARROGANT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.3 favourite.

Result

Official · 2.02.41
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 CHARITY FUN Closed strongly TT 2.02.41 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · C S Shum 5 2.3 1-1/4
2 10 PAKISTAN FRIEND Led early TT A Badel · W Y So 6 7.9 1-1/4
3 6 ARROGANT B/TT N Callan · C Fownes 7 14.0 2-1/2
4 3 VINCY Closed strongly SR/TT T Piccone · D J Whyte 4 8.1 3
5 4 BLASTOISE CP A Hamelin · D E Ferraris 1 42.0 3-3/4
6 9 AWE XB M F Poon · D A Hayes 2 7.4 3-3/4
7 5 CHAMPION SUPREME Closed strongly B/TT2 B Shinn · Y S Tsui 9 45.0 4
8 8 ABOVE Closed strongly B K Teetan · A T Millard 10 11.0 5-1/2
9 7 GOD OF DRAGON H/XB/TT J Moreira · A S Cruz 8 8.0 5-3/4
10 11 CLEMENT LEGEND B/TT H N Wong · C S Shum 3 48.0 6-3/4
11 2 CALIFORNIA TEN B-/CP2/TT C Y Ho · A S Cruz 11 17.0 8

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CHARITY FUN2. PAKISTAN FRIEND+1.25L3. ARROGANT+2.5L4. VINCY+3L5. BLASTOISE+3.75L6. AWE+3.75L7. CHAMPION SUPREME+4L8. ABOVE+5.5L9. GOD OF DRAGON+5.75L10. CLEMENT LEGEND+6.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick CHARITY FUN (27.5%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 CHARITY FUN 27.5% 3.64 1
2 10 PAKISTAN FRIEND 14.9% 6.72 2
3 7 GOD OF DRAGON 14.7% 6.79 9
4 8 ABOVE 9.5% 10.56 8
5 9 AWE 7.8% 12.77 6
6 3 VINCY 7.1% 13.99 4
7 2 CALIFORNIA TEN 5.7% 17.52 11
8 6 ARROGANT 5.2% 19.24 3
9 4 BLASTOISE 3.1% 32.59 5
10 11 CLEMENT LEGEND 2.7% 37.44 10
11 5 CHAMPION SUPREME 1.8% 55.24 7
CHARITY FUN — wonPAKISTAN FRIENDGOD OF DRAGONABOVEAWEVINCYCALIFORNIA TENARROGANTBLASTOISECLEMENT LEGENDCHAMPION SUPREME

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 23.5

PLACE

1 12.5

6 39.5

10 28.5

QUINELLA

1,10 102

QUINELLA PLACE

1,6 65

1,10 45

6,10 141.5

FORECAST

1,10 210

TIERCE

1,10,6 1,585

TRIO

1,6,10 386

FIRST 4

1,3,6,10 824

QUARTET

1,10,6,3 11,258

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

2/1 86.5

2/10 44.5

3 PICK 1

A1 18

A3

A2