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Sha Tin · 2021-03-21

Race 1

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course A 14 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2021-03-21 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. BELLA BABY, ridden by A Badel and trained by W Y So, won by 1-3/4, with PACKING AWARD second and SO AWESOME third. The 2.9 favourite PACKING AWARD finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.09.93
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 14 BELLA BABY XB/TT 1.09.93 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · W Y So 12 17.0 1-3/4
2 7 PACKING AWARD H1 M L Yeung · D A Hayes 6 2.9 1-3/4
3 9 SO AWESOME B R Maia · Y S Tsui 9 6.8 2
4 5 GLENEALY GENERALS V/XB1 N Callan · C H Yip 1 5.7 2
5 2 SUMMIT CHEERS Z Purton · D J Hall 10 4.8 2-1/4
6 3 SUPER COMMANDER TT B Shinn · D E Ferraris 14 58.0 4
7 1 EXCEED THE STARS B C Y Ho · C S Shum 4 66.0 4-3/4
8 4 XPONENTIAL CP T Piccone · D J Whyte 5 9.7 4-3/4
9 8 SUPER FLAMES H W Lai · L Ho 3 241.0 6
10 11 FARM BUMPER B C L Chau · K L Man 7 48.0 7
11 6 LOVE ME MORE K C Leung · P F Yiu 13 15.0 8-1/2
12 13 GALLANT LEGACY SR/TT A Hamelin · C W Chang 11 33.0 9-1/4
13 12 ALL YOU WANT B/TT C Wong · R Gibson 8 331.0 11-1/2
14 10 BULLISH UNICORN CP/H1/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 2 39.0 14-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BELLA BABY2. PACKING AWARD+1.75L3. SO AWESOME+2L4. GLENEALY GENERALS+2L5. SUMMIT CHEERS+2.25L6. SUPER COMMANDER+4L7. EXCEED THE STARS+4.75L8. XPONENTIAL+4.75L9. SUPER FLAMES+6L10. FARM BUMPER+7L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick SUMMIT CHEERS (34.2%) finished 5th — the winner BELLA BABY was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 SUMMIT CHEERS 34.2% 2.92 5
2 5 GLENEALY GENERALS 16.9% 5.92 4
3 4 XPONENTIAL 7.8% 12.85 8
4 9 SO AWESOME 6.4% 15.66 3
5 3 SUPER COMMANDER 5.4% 18.67 6
6 14 BELLA BABY 5.2% 19.37 1
7 13 GALLANT LEGACY 4.4% 22.73 12
8 6 LOVE ME MORE 4.3% 23.37 11
9 11 FARM BUMPER 3.9% 25.73 10
10 7 PACKING AWARD 3.6% 27.46 2
11 1 EXCEED THE STARS 2.8% 35.93 7
12 10 BULLISH UNICORN 2.5% 40.51 14
13 8 SUPER FLAMES 2.2% 46.27 9
14 12 ALL YOU WANT 0.6% 170.01 13
SUMMIT CHEERSGLENEALY GENERALSXPONENTIALSO AWESOMESUPER COMMANDERBELLA BABY — wonGALLANT LEGACYLOVE ME MOREFARM BUMPERPACKING AWARDEXCEED THE STARSBULLISH UNICORNSUPER FLAMESALL YOU WANT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

14 172.5

PLACE

7 14

9 17.5

14 53

QUINELLA

7,14 293.5

QUINELLA PLACE

7,9 41

7,14 112.5

9,14 147.5

FORECAST

14,7 1,112

TIERCE

14,7,9 7,237

TRIO

7,9,14 891

FIRST 4

5,7,9,14 575

QUARTET

14,7,9,5 23,648

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A3 42

A2