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Sha Tin · 2021-03-21

Race 8

4YO GOOD 2000m Course A 14 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2021-03-21 was 4YO over 2000m, run on GOOD going. SKY DARCI, ridden by J Moreira and trained by C Fownes, won by HD, with RUSSIAN EMPEROR second and PANFIELD third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.7 favourite RUSSIAN EMPEROR finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 2.01.32
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 SKY DARCI Closed strongly TT 2.01.32 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · C Fownes 2 6.5 HD
2 7 RUSSIAN EMPEROR Closed strongly B/XB K Teetan · D J Whyte 5 4.7 HD
3 8 PANFIELD Closed strongly TT C Schofield · A T Millard 12 26.0 3/4
4 2 EXCELLENT PROPOSAL Closed strongly E B Shinn · J Size 8 5.0 1-3/4
5 11 DELIGHTFUL LAOS Closed strongly B/TT K C Leung · A S Cruz 10 96.0 2
6 3 HEALTHY HAPPY Led early V/TT A Badel · F C Lor 3 10.0 2-1/4
7 5 TOURBILLON DIAMOND Closed strongly B/TT C Y Ho · C S Shum 11 8.1 2-1/2
8 14 PACKING WALTHAM B/TT N Callan · A S Cruz 6 32.0 5-1/4
9 10 SILVER EXPRESS B M Chadwick · J Size 1 6.9 5-3/4
10 6 LUCKY EXPRESS E/TT A Hamelin · J Size 9 20.0 6-1/4
11 13 MAXIMUS SR M F Poon · A T Millard 4 98.0 8-1/2
12 4 SHADOW HERO CP Z Purton · D A Hayes 7 8.3 9
13 9 CONGRATULATION B/XB T Piccone · D J Whyte 14 114.0 9-1/4
14 12 CONQUEROR CP-/B2 M L Yeung · D A Hayes 13 63.0 9-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SKY DARCI2. RUSSIAN EMPEROR+0.2L3. PANFIELD+0.75L4. EXCELLENT PROPOSAL+1.75L5. DELIGHTFUL LAOS+2L6. HEALTHY HAPPY+2.25L7. TOURBILLON DIAMOND+2.5L8. PACKING WALTHAM+5.25L9. SILVER EXPRESS+5.75L10. LUCKY EXPRESS+6.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick SKY DARCI (21.5%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 SKY DARCI 21.5% 4.65 1
2 4 SHADOW HERO 12.3% 8.13 12
3 10 SILVER EXPRESS 11.1% 9.00 9
4 3 HEALTHY HAPPY 11.0% 9.06 6
5 5 TOURBILLON DIAMOND 9.9% 10.07 7
6 8 PANFIELD 7.3% 13.76 3
7 6 LUCKY EXPRESS 6.4% 15.54 10
8 2 EXCELLENT PROPOSAL 6.2% 16.10 4
9 14 PACKING WALTHAM 4.0% 24.97 8
10 11 DELIGHTFUL LAOS 2.8% 35.53 5
11 13 MAXIMUS 2.3% 43.15 11
12 7 RUSSIAN EMPEROR 2.2% 45.17 2
13 12 CONQUEROR 1.5% 68.29 14
14 9 CONGRATULATION 1.4% 71.57 13
SKY DARCI — wonSHADOW HEROSILVER EXPRESSHEALTHY HAPPYTOURBILLON DIAMONDPANFIELDLUCKY EXPRESSEXCELLENT PROPOSALPACKING WALTHAMDELIGHTFUL LAOSMAXIMUSRUSSIAN EMPERORCONQUERORCONGRATULATION

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 65.5

PLACE

1 26

7 19

8 73

QUINELLA

1,7 230.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,7 80.5

1,8 381

7,8 226

FORECAST

1,7 367

TIERCE

1,7,8 10,422

TRIO

1,7,8 2,317

FIRST 4

1,2,7,8 1,580

QUARTET

1,7,8,2 42,368

All pools (3 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 21

A3

A1

7TH DOUBLE

8/1 61

8/7 10.5

WINNING TRAINER

B2

B1

B4 21.5

B3