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Sha Tin · 2021-03-21

Race 6

Class 3 GOOD 1400m Course A 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.21.62
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 BELUGA Closed strongly H 1.21.62 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · D J Hall 9 3.7 NOSE
2 0 TRUE LEGEND Closed strongly B K Teetan · F C Lor 11 3.4 NOSE
3 0 PERFECT PAIR Closed strongly SR A Badel · K H Ting 5 21.0 N
4 0 COMPASSION SPIRIT B K C Leung · K L Man 14 45.0 1-1/4
5 0 KASI FARASI Closed strongly A Hamelin · C H Yip 6 21.0 1-1/2
6 0 PURE LEGEND V M Chadwick · C Fownes 1 9.1 1-1/2
7 0 NEW FUTURE Closed strongly B/TT M F Poon · T P Yung 12 12.0 2-1/2
8 0 DIVINE REGULUS TT M L Yeung · W Y So 7 78.0 3-1/2
9 0 NOBLE STEED Closed strongly B N Callan · K W Lui 8 64.0 4
10 0 BEAUTY LEGACY E/TT J Moreira · J Size 2 4.9 4-1/4
11 0 STOICISM Led early B Shinn · D E Ferraris 4 15.0 4-1/2
12 0 HARMONY WIN WIN XB/SR1 C L Chau · D J Whyte 3 63.0 4-3/4
13 0 IMA SINGLE MAN CP/H/TT T Piccone · A S Cruz 13 38.0 5-1/4
14 0 AMAZING BEATS CP/TT C Schofield · P O'Sullivan 10 130.0 12-1/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2021-03-21 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. BELUGA, ridden by Z Purton and trained by D J Hall, won by NOSE, with TRUE LEGEND second and PERFECT PAIR third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.4 favourite TRUE LEGEND finished 2nd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BELUGA—2. TRUE LEGEND+0.05L3. PERFECT PAIR+0.05L4. COMPASSION SPIRIT+1.25L5. KASI FARASI+1.5L6. PURE LEGEND+1.5L7. NEW FUTURE+2.5L8. DIVINE REGULUS+3.5L9. NOBLE STEED+4L10. BEAUTY LEGACY+4.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick BEAUTY LEGACY (33.8%) finished 10th — the winner BELUGA was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 BEAUTY LEGACY 33.8% 2.96 10
2 0 BELUGA 15.2% 6.59 1
3 0 PURE LEGEND 9.2% 10.85 6
4 0 TRUE LEGEND 8.9% 11.29 2
5 0 NEW FUTURE 6.3% 15.79 7
6 0 KASI FARASI 5.9% 16.98 5
7 0 IMA SINGLE MAN 4.3% 23.04 13
8 0 COMPASSION SPIRIT 3.2% 31.30 4
9 0 AMAZING BEATS 2.9% 34.89 14
10 0 PERFECT PAIR 2.7% 36.95 3
11 0 STOICISM 2.4% 42.04 11
12 0 NOBLE STEED 2.3% 43.42 9
13 0 DIVINE REGULUS 1.9% 52.73 8
14 0 HARMONY WIN WIN 1.1% 94.79 12
BEAUTY LEGACYBELUGA — wonPURE LEGENDTRUE LEGENDNEW FUTUREKASI FARASIIMA SINGLE MANCOMPASSION SPIRITAMAZING BEATSPERFECT PAIRSTOICISMNOBLE STEEDDIVINE REGULUSHARMONY WIN WIN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 37

PLACE

6 16.5

11 12.5

13 58

QUINELLA

6,11 83

QUINELLA PLACE

6,11 32.5

6,13 151.5

11,13 110

FORECAST

6,11 180

TIERCE

6,11,13 1,739

TRIO

6,11,13 528

FIRST 4

6,7,11,13 2,764

QUARTET

6,11,13,7 28,247

All pools (3 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 21

A2 —

A3 —

5TH DOUBLE

13/6 521

13/11 163

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

1,3,5/5,12,13/Any Combination 110,785