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Sha Tin · 2021-03-21

Race 6

Class 3 GOOD 1400m Course A 14 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2021-03-21 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. BELUGA, ridden by Z Purton and trained by D J Hall, won by NOSE, with TRUE LEGEND second and PERFECT PAIR third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.4 favourite TRUE LEGEND finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.21.62
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 BELUGA Closed strongly H 1.21.62 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · D J Hall 9 3.7 NOSE
2 11 TRUE LEGEND Closed strongly B K Teetan · F C Lor 11 3.4 NOSE
3 13 PERFECT PAIR Closed strongly SR A Badel · K H Ting 5 21.0 N
4 7 COMPASSION SPIRIT B K C Leung · K L Man 14 45.0 1-1/4
5 9 KASI FARASI Closed strongly A Hamelin · C H Yip 6 21.0 1-1/2
6 14 PURE LEGEND V M Chadwick · C Fownes 1 9.1 1-1/2
7 12 NEW FUTURE Closed strongly B/TT M F Poon · T P Yung 12 12.0 2-1/2
8 10 DIVINE REGULUS TT M L Yeung · W Y So 7 78.0 3-1/2
9 3 NOBLE STEED Closed strongly B N Callan · K W Lui 8 64.0 4
10 1 BEAUTY LEGACY E/TT J Moreira · J Size 2 4.9 4-1/4
11 5 STOICISM Led early B Shinn · D E Ferraris 4 15.0 4-1/2
12 8 HARMONY WIN WIN XB/SR1 C L Chau · D J Whyte 3 63.0 4-3/4
13 4 IMA SINGLE MAN CP/H/TT T Piccone · A S Cruz 13 38.0 5-1/4
14 2 AMAZING BEATS CP/TT C Schofield · P O'Sullivan 10 130.0 12-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BELUGA2. TRUE LEGEND+0.05L3. PERFECT PAIR+0.05L4. COMPASSION SPIRIT+1.25L5. KASI FARASI+1.5L6. PURE LEGEND+1.5L7. NEW FUTURE+2.5L8. DIVINE REGULUS+3.5L9. NOBLE STEED+4L10. BEAUTY LEGACY+4.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick BEAUTY LEGACY (33.8%) finished 10th — the winner BELUGA was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 BEAUTY LEGACY 33.8% 2.96 10
2 6 BELUGA 15.2% 6.59 1
3 14 PURE LEGEND 9.2% 10.85 6
4 11 TRUE LEGEND 8.9% 11.29 2
5 12 NEW FUTURE 6.3% 15.79 7
6 9 KASI FARASI 5.9% 16.98 5
7 4 IMA SINGLE MAN 4.3% 23.04 13
8 7 COMPASSION SPIRIT 3.2% 31.30 4
9 2 AMAZING BEATS 2.9% 34.89 14
10 13 PERFECT PAIR 2.7% 36.95 3
11 5 STOICISM 2.4% 42.04 11
12 3 NOBLE STEED 2.3% 43.42 9
13 10 DIVINE REGULUS 1.9% 52.73 8
14 8 HARMONY WIN WIN 1.1% 94.79 12
BEAUTY LEGACYBELUGA — wonPURE LEGENDTRUE LEGENDNEW FUTUREKASI FARASIIMA SINGLE MANCOMPASSION SPIRITAMAZING BEATSPERFECT PAIRSTOICISMNOBLE STEEDDIVINE REGULUSHARMONY WIN WIN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 37

PLACE

6 16.5

11 12.5

13 58

QUINELLA

6,11 83

QUINELLA PLACE

6,11 32.5

6,13 151.5

11,13 110

FORECAST

6,11 180

TIERCE

6,11,13 1,739

TRIO

6,11,13 528

FIRST 4

6,7,11,13 2,764

QUARTET

6,11,13,7 28,247

All pools (3 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 21

A2

A3

5TH DOUBLE

13/6 521

13/11 163

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

1,3,5/5,12,13/Any Combination 110,785