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Sha Tin · 2021-04-05

Race 2

Class 1 GOOD 2000m Course B+2 9 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2021-04-05 was Class 1 over 2000m, run on GOOD going. GLORIOUS DRAGON, ridden by M F Poon and trained by K W Lui, won by 1, with BUTTERFIELD second and HELENE LEADINGSTAR third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.3 favourite.

Result

Official · 2.01.92
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 GLORIOUS DRAGON Closed strongly TT 2.01.92 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · K W Lui 8 3.3 1
2 6 BUTTERFIELD Closed strongly TT A Badel · C S Shum 4 3.3 1
3 9 HELENE LEADINGSTAR Closed strongly XB/TT J Moreira · A S Cruz 1 5.0 1-1/4
4 2 COLUMBUS COUNTY Closed strongly H-/TT K Teetan · C Fownes 9 8.4 2-1/4
5 7 HO HO KHAN Closed strongly B C Y Ho · D J Hall 5 18.0 3
6 3 TIME WARP Led early TT Z Purton · A S Cruz 3 8.7 3-1/4
7 5 SAVVY NINE XB/SR1 M L Yeung · D J Whyte 7 25.0 4
8 8 PLAYA DEL PUENTE SR/TT- K C Leung · C S Shum 2 14.0 5-1/2
9 4 CHEFANO B-/XB-/CP2 R Maia · P O'Sullivan 6 49.0 10-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GLORIOUS DRAGON2. BUTTERFIELD+1L3. HELENE LEADINGSTAR+1.25L4. COLUMBUS COUNTY+2.25L5. HO HO KHAN+3L6. TIME WARP+3.25L7. SAVVY NINE+4L8. PLAYA DEL PUENTE+5.5L9. CHEFANO+10.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick HELENE LEADINGSTAR (29.3%) finished 3rd — the winner GLORIOUS DRAGON was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 HELENE LEADINGSTAR 29.3% 3.42 3
2 3 TIME WARP 21.2% 4.71 6
3 6 BUTTERFIELD 16.4% 6.10 2
4 1 GLORIOUS DRAGON 11.4% 8.74 1
5 7 HO HO KHAN 6.8% 14.74 5
6 2 COLUMBUS COUNTY 5.7% 17.57 4
7 5 SAVVY NINE 4.8% 20.97 7
8 8 PLAYA DEL PUENTE 2.8% 36.01 8
9 4 CHEFANO 1.7% 60.17 9
HELENE LEADINGSTARTIME WARPBUTTERFIELDGLORIOUS DRAGON — wonHO HO KHANCOLUMBUS COUNTYSAVVY NINEPLAYA DEL PUENTECHEFANO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 33

PLACE

1 13

6 13

9 18.5

QUINELLA

1,6 90.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,6 26.5

1,9 42

6,9 31.5

FORECAST

1,6 109

TIERCE

1,6,9 406

TRIO

1,6,9 124

FIRST 4

1,2,6,9 82

QUARTET

1,6,9,2 1,227

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

1/1 82

1/6 41

3 PICK 1

A3

A2

A1 24