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Sha Tin · 2021-04-05

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course B+2 14 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2021-04-05 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. TRADER, ridden by Z Purton and trained by D A Hayes, won by 1-3/4, with PARTY GENIUS second and LUCKY QUALITY third. Victory came as the 1.9 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.61
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 TRADER CP1 1.09.61 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · D A Hayes 11 1.9 1-3/4
2 12 PARTY GENIUS CP/XB K Teetan · D J Whyte 9 6.4 1-3/4
3 1 LUCKY QUALITY K H Chan · C Fownes 8 12.0 2-1/2
4 6 DURHAM STAR C Schofield · P O'Sullivan 2 12.0 2-3/4
5 5 DARCI JOY N Callan · P F Yiu 3 20.0 3-1/2
6 9 TEAM GOODLUCK V Borges · W Y So 4 77.0 4-1/2
7 3 BEAUTY CHEERS E1 J Moreira · J Size 12 8.0 5-1/4
8 2 HONEST WAY CP/TT C L Chau · K L Man 7 9.3 6-3/4
9 4 CORDYCEPS ONE H C Y Ho · K W Lui 13 190.0 8-1/4
10 14 U W BROTHER B2 C Wong · Y S Tsui 10 108.0 9-1/2
11 8 SUPER FLAMES M F Poon · L Ho 1 178.0 13
12 7 LUCKY TREASURE TT1 K C Leung · K H Ting 6 209.0 13
13 11 FIGURES TWO T Piccone · A T Millard 5 228.0 14-1/4
14 13 HOT CHILI PEPPER B/TT A Badel · C S Shum 14 15.0 18-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. TRADER2. PARTY GENIUS+1.75L3. LUCKY QUALITY+2.5L4. DURHAM STAR+2.75L5. DARCI JOY+3.5L6. TEAM GOODLUCK+4.5L7. BEAUTY CHEERS+5.25L8. HONEST WAY+6.75L9. CORDYCEPS ONE+8.25L10. U W BROTHER+9.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick BEAUTY CHEERS (34.9%) finished 7th — the winner TRADER was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 BEAUTY CHEERS 34.9% 2.86 7
2 10 TRADER 15.3% 6.55 1
3 12 PARTY GENIUS 8.7% 11.54 2
4 6 DURHAM STAR 7.8% 12.77 4
5 1 LUCKY QUALITY 7.1% 13.99 3
6 9 TEAM GOODLUCK 5.0% 20.07 6
7 13 HOT CHILI PEPPER 4.8% 21.02 14
8 2 HONEST WAY 4.5% 22.01 8
9 5 DARCI JOY 4.2% 23.86 5
10 14 U W BROTHER 3.3% 30.33 10
11 8 SUPER FLAMES 1.7% 59.61 11
12 4 CORDYCEPS ONE 1.5% 65.37 9
13 11 FIGURES TWO 0.6% 165.46 13
14 7 LUCKY TREASURE 0.5% 183.10 12
BEAUTY CHEERSTRADER — wonPARTY GENIUSDURHAM STARLUCKY QUALITYTEAM GOODLUCKHOT CHILI PEPPERHONEST WAYDARCI JOYU W BROTHERSUPER FLAMESCORDYCEPS ONEFIGURES TWOLUCKY TREASURE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 19.5

PLACE

1 27.5

10 11

12 19

QUINELLA

10,12 64

QUINELLA PLACE

1,10 55.5

1,12 90.5

10,12 28.5

FORECAST

10,12 110

TIERCE

10,12,1 619

TRIO

1,10,12 207

FIRST 4

1,6,10,12 409

QUARTET

10,12,1,6 4,431

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

1,4,5/1,10,12 5,007

3 PICK 1

A2

A1 16

A3

3RD DOUBLE

4/10 551.5

4/12 144.5