沙田 · 2021-04-05
第 4場
2021-04-05沙田第4場，Class 4，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD。由Z Purton策騎、D A Hayes訓練的TRADER勝出，贏出1-3/4。PARTY GENIUS獲得亞軍；LUCKY QUALITY獲得季軍。頭馬以1.9倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | TRADER CP1 1.09.61 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） Z Purton · D A Hayes | Z Purton | D A Hayes | 11 | 1.9 | 1-3/4 |
| 2 | 12 | PARTY GENIUS CP/XB K Teetan · D J Whyte | K Teetan | D J Whyte | 9 | 6.4 | 1-3/4 |
| 3 | 1 | LUCKY QUALITY K H Chan · C Fownes | K H Chan | C Fownes | 8 | 12.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 4 | 6 | DURHAM STAR C Schofield · P O'Sullivan | C Schofield | P O'Sullivan | 2 | 12.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 5 | DARCI JOY N Callan · P F Yiu | N Callan | P F Yiu | 3 | 20.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 6 | 9 | TEAM GOODLUCK V Borges · W Y So | V Borges | W Y So | 4 | 77.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 7 | 3 | BEAUTY CHEERS E1 J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 12 | 8.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 8 | 2 | HONEST WAY CP/TT C L Chau · K L Man | C L Chau | K L Man | 7 | 9.3 | 6-3/4 |
| 9 | 4 | CORDYCEPS ONE H C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 13 | 190.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 10 | 14 | U W BROTHER B2 C Wong · Y S Tsui | C Wong | Y S Tsui | 10 | 108.0 | 9-1/2 |
| 11 | 8 | SUPER FLAMES M F Poon · L Ho | M F Poon | L Ho | 1 | 178.0 | 13 |
| 12 | 7 | LUCKY TREASURE TT1 K C Leung · K H Ting | K C Leung | K H Ting | 6 | 209.0 | 13 |
| 13 | 11 | FIGURES TWO T Piccone · A T Millard | T Piccone | A T Millard | 5 | 228.0 | 14-1/4 |
| 14 | 13 | HOT CHILI PEPPER B/TT A Badel · C S Shum | A Badel | C S Shum | 14 | 15.0 | 18-3/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | BEAUTY CHEERS | 34.9% | 2.86 | 7 |
| 2 | 10 | TRADER | 15.3% | 6.55 | 1 |
| 3 | 12 | PARTY GENIUS | 8.7% | 11.54 | 2 |
| 4 | 6 | DURHAM STAR | 7.8% | 12.77 | 4 |
| 5 | 1 | LUCKY QUALITY | 7.1% | 13.99 | 3 |
| 6 | 9 | TEAM GOODLUCK | 5.0% | 20.07 | 6 |
| 7 | 13 | HOT CHILI PEPPER | 4.8% | 21.02 | 14 |
| 8 | 2 | HONEST WAY | 4.5% | 22.01 | 8 |
| 9 | 5 | DARCI JOY | 4.2% | 23.86 | 5 |
| 10 | 14 | U W BROTHER | 3.3% | 30.33 | 10 |
| 11 | 8 | SUPER FLAMES | 1.7% | 59.61 | 11 |
| 12 | 4 | CORDYCEPS ONE | 1.5% | 65.37 | 9 |
| 13 | 11 | FIGURES TWO | 0.6% | 165.46 | 13 |
| 14 | 7 | LUCKY TREASURE | 0.5% | 183.10 | 12 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
10 19.5
PLACE
1 27.5
10 11
12 19
QUINELLA
10,12 64
QUINELLA PLACE
1,10 55.5
1,12 90.5
10,12 28.5
FORECAST
10,12 110
TIERCE
10,12,1 619
TRIO
1,10,12 207
FIRST 4
1,6,10,12 409
QUARTET
10,12,1,6 4,431
全部彩池（另 3 項）
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
1,4,5/1,10,12 5,007
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 16
A3 —
3RD DOUBLE
4/10 551.5
4/12 144.5