Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2021-04-05

Race 10

Class 3 GOOD 1400m Course B+2 14 runners

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2021-04-05 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. PRIVATE ROCKET, ridden by C L Chau and trained by D J Whyte, won by SH, with KASI FARASI second and PERFECT TO GREAT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.1 favourite KASI FARASI finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.21.80
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 PRIVATE ROCKET Closed strongly CP-/XB/SR1 1.21.80 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · D J Whyte 11 8.1 SH
2 11 KASI FARASI Closed strongly J Moreira · C H Yip 2 3.1 SH
3 4 PERFECT TO GREAT Closed strongly V K Teetan · C Fownes 3 6.3 2-1/4
4 2 WINNING FOR ALL Closed strongly B/H/XB C Y Ho · K W Lui 4 13.0 4
5 12 PIANO SOLO Closed strongly V Borges · C S Shum 5 47.0 4-3/4
6 13 SMART FOLKS B A Badel · C W Chang 8 10.0 5-1/4
7 6 ALL FOR SOUTH Led early B Z Purton · F C Lor 12 6.7 6
8 1 BEAUTY RUSH E C Schofield · J Size 14 9.9 9
9 14 SWIFT SPIRIT Closed strongly B/XB/TT H N Wong · K H Ting 10 83.0 10
10 3 SMART LEADER Closed strongly B/TT C Wong · W Y So 13 84.0 10-1/4
11 8 KA YING EXCELLENT CP/TT N Callan · A S Cruz 9 10.0 10-3/4
12 7 ENZEMBLE Closed strongly H/XB K C Leung · K L Man 7 46.0 10-3/4
13 10 ETERNAL BEAUTY TT M F Poon · A S Cruz 1 62.0 17-1/4
14 9 SINCERE BOY B M L Yeung · P O'Sullivan 6 99.0 19-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. PRIVATE ROCKET2. KASI FARASI+0.1L3. PERFECT TO GREAT+2.25L4. WINNING FOR ALL+4L5. PIANO SOLO+4.75L6. SMART FOLKS+5.25L7. ALL FOR SOUTH+6L8. BEAUTY RUSH+9L9. SWIFT SPIRIT+10L10. SMART LEADER+10.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick KASI FARASI (26.5%) finished 2nd — the winner PRIVATE ROCKET was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 11 KASI FARASI 26.5% 3.77 2
2 6 ALL FOR SOUTH 19.7% 5.07 7
3 4 PERFECT TO GREAT 19.2% 5.21 3
4 8 KA YING EXCELLENT 7.1% 14.05 11
5 1 BEAUTY RUSH 5.9% 16.85 8
6 5 PRIVATE ROCKET 4.3% 23.36 1
7 2 WINNING FOR ALL 4.2% 23.64 4
8 13 SMART FOLKS 2.8% 35.45 6
9 7 ENZEMBLE 2.6% 38.52 12
10 3 SMART LEADER 2.3% 42.96 10
11 12 PIANO SOLO 2.2% 44.51 5
12 9 SINCERE BOY 1.9% 53.34 14
13 10 ETERNAL BEAUTY 0.6% 167.89 13
14 14 SWIFT SPIRIT 0.5% 183.71 9
KASI FARASIALL FOR SOUTHPERFECT TO GREATKA YING EXCELLENTBEAUTY RUSHPRIVATE ROCKET — wonWINNING FOR ALLSMART FOLKSENZEMBLESMART LEADERPIANO SOLOSINCERE BOYETERNAL BEAUTYSWIFT SPIRIT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 81.5

PLACE

4 19

5 30

11 13.5

QUINELLA

5,11 132.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,5 96

4,11 42

5,11 52.5

FORECAST

5,11 505

TIERCE

5,11,4 1,529

TRIO

4,5,11 214

FIRST 4

2,4,5,11 375

QUARTET

5,11,4,2 10,821

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 31.5

A1

A3

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

8,9,11/4,5,11 924,836

9TH DOUBLE

9/5 15,272.5

9/11 1,330

SIX UP

5/1/2/8/9/5 3,096,928

5,11/1,11/2,6/8,10/8,9/5,11 9,143

1 [J Moreira]

TREBLE

8/9/5 59,812

8/9/11 4,720