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Sha Tin · 2021-04-05

Race 5

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course B+2 11 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2021-04-05 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. REGENCY BO BO, ridden by Z Purton and trained by C S Shum, won by N, with KILLER BEE second and DECISIVE TWELVE third. The 1.9 favourite KILLER BEE finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.09.38
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 REGENCY BO BO B/TT 1.09.38 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · C S Shum 1 4.1 N
2 11 KILLER BEE TT J Moreira · C Fownes 8 1.9 N
3 9 DECISIVE TWELVE TT K Teetan · W Y So 3 4.0 1-1/2
4 2 NOBLE STEED B V Borges · K W Lui 4 78.0 2
5 3 TORNADO TWIST B/TT B Shinn · F C Lor 5 17.0 2-1/4
6 4 UTOPIA LIFE V K H Chan · K L Man 9 145.0 2-3/4
7 10 FLYING SWORD CP/TT M L Yeung · D A Hayes 2 39.0 4
8 1 YO BEAUTY TT N Callan · A S Cruz 10 52.0 4
9 7 TAKING AIM SR C Y Ho · D J Whyte 7 20.0 4-1/4
10 8 LOYAL BABY M F Poon · F C Lor 11 43.0 6-1/2
11 6 EUROMISSILE XB/TT A Badel · C W Chang 6 59.0 9-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. REGENCY BO BO2. KILLER BEE+0.05L3. DECISIVE TWELVE+1.5L4. NOBLE STEED+2L5. TORNADO TWIST+2.25L6. UTOPIA LIFE+2.75L7. FLYING SWORD+4L8. YO BEAUTY+4L9. TAKING AIM+4.25L10. LOYAL BABY+6.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick KILLER BEE (60.2%) finished 2nd — the winner REGENCY BO BO was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 11 KILLER BEE 60.2% 1.66 2
2 5 REGENCY BO BO 12.3% 8.11 1
3 9 DECISIVE TWELVE 10.8% 9.29 3
4 10 FLYING SWORD 3.4% 29.28 7
5 7 TAKING AIM 2.8% 36.05 9
6 3 TORNADO TWIST 2.6% 38.91 5
7 8 LOYAL BABY 2.1% 46.85 10
8 4 UTOPIA LIFE 2.1% 48.27 6
9 6 EUROMISSILE 1.6% 62.64 11
10 2 NOBLE STEED 1.6% 64.22 4
11 1 YO BEAUTY 0.6% 164.77 8
KILLER BEEREGENCY BO BO — wonDECISIVE TWELVEFLYING SWORDTAKING AIMTORNADO TWISTLOYAL BABYUTOPIA LIFEEUROMISSILENOBLE STEEDYO BEAUTY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 41.5

PLACE

5 13.5

9 13

11 11.5

QUINELLA

5,11 42

QUINELLA PLACE

5,9 23.5

5,11 21

9,11 17.5

FORECAST

5,11 133

TIERCE

5,11,9 267

TRIO

5,9,11 31

FIRST 4

2,5,9,11 264

QUARTET

5,11,9,2 5,238

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A1

A2 29

4TH DOUBLE

10/5 113.5

10/11 10.5