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Sha Tin · 2021-04-05

Race 3

Group 2 GOOD 1600m Course B+2 5 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2021-04-05 was Group 2 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. MIGHTY GIANT, ridden by N Callan and trained by P F Yiu, won by 1/2, with SOUTHERN LEGEND second and MORE THAN THIS third. The winner led throughout. The 1.6 favourite WAIKUKU finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.35.06
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 MIGHTY GIANT Wire to wire B 1.35.06 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) N Callan · P F Yiu 2 12.0 1/2
2 1 SOUTHERN LEGEND TT K Teetan · C Fownes 4 3.6 1/2
3 5 MORE THAN THIS Closed strongly K C Leung · K W Lui 5 5.8 2-1/4
4 6 CHAMPION'S WAY P/TT C Schofield · J Size 1 17.0 3-3/4
5 2 WAIKUKU J Moreira · J Size 3 1.6 18-1/2
3 KA YING STAR Z Purton · A S Cruz

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MIGHTY GIANT2. SOUTHERN LEGEND+0.5L3. MORE THAN THIS+2.25L4. CHAMPION'S WAY+3.75L5. WAIKUKU+18.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick WAIKUKU (47.2%) finished 5th — the winner MIGHTY GIANT was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 WAIKUKU 47.2% 2.12 5
2 1 SOUTHERN LEGEND 22.6% 4.43 2
3 5 MORE THAN THIS 14.8% 6.75 3
4 6 CHAMPION'S WAY 8.7% 11.48 4
5 4 MIGHTY GIANT 6.7% 14.86 1
WAIKUKUSOUTHERN LEGENDMORE THAN THISCHAMPION'S WAYMIGHTY GIANT — won

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 126

PLACE

1 14

4 42

QUINELLA

1,4 122

FORECAST

4,1 499

TIERCE

4,1,5 1,274

TRIO

1,4,5 214

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2ND DOUBLE

1/1 19.5

1/4 438