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Sha Tin · 2021-04-05

Race 9

Group 2 GOOD 1200m Course B+2 13 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2021-04-05 was Group 2 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. AMAZING STAR, ridden by V Borges and trained by K H Ting, won by SH, with STRONGER second and BEAUTY APPLAUSE third. The 2.8 favourite WELLINGTON finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.08.24
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 AMAZING STAR 1.08.24 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) V Borges · K H Ting 2 179.0 SH
2 8 STRONGER CP/XB/TT C Y Ho · D J Whyte 8 24.0 SH
3 11 BEAUTY APPLAUSE TT J Moreira · J Size 7 5.3 1
4 1 WISHFUL THINKER K C Leung · C H Yip 4 22.0 2
5 3 WELLINGTON XB A Badel · R Gibson 12 2.8 2-1/2
6 2 COMPUTER PATCH TT N Callan · A S Cruz 9 8.8 2-3/4
7 7 VOYAGE WARRIOR V R Maia · P F Yiu 11 35.0 3
8 4 BIG PARTY K Teetan · F C Lor 3 20.0 4-1/4
9 12 SKY FIELD TT Z Purton · C Fownes 10 4.7 5
10 5 FAT TURTLE B C Schofield · F C Lor 5 26.0 5
11 13 WINNING DREAMER M F Poon · F C Lor 6 9.6 6-1/2
12 10 BUDDIES H/TT B Shinn · A S Cruz 1 111.0 7-1/2
13 6 REGENCY LEGEND TT T Piccone · C S Shum 13 45.0 8-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. AMAZING STAR2. STRONGER+0.1L3. BEAUTY APPLAUSE+1L4. WISHFUL THINKER+2L5. WELLINGTON+2.5L6. COMPUTER PATCH+2.75L7. VOYAGE WARRIOR+3L8. BIG PARTY+4.25L9. SKY FIELD+5L10. FAT TURTLE+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick WELLINGTON (36.0%) finished 5th — the winner AMAZING STAR was rated #12. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 WELLINGTON 36.0% 2.78 5
2 12 SKY FIELD 13.8% 7.25 9
3 11 BEAUTY APPLAUSE 13.6% 7.37 3
4 13 WINNING DREAMER 7.6% 13.15 11
5 2 COMPUTER PATCH 6.3% 15.93 6
6 8 STRONGER 4.6% 21.81 2
7 4 BIG PARTY 3.7% 27.11 8
8 5 FAT TURTLE 3.2% 31.16 10
9 6 REGENCY LEGEND 2.9% 34.50 13
10 7 VOYAGE WARRIOR 2.7% 36.41 7
11 1 WISHFUL THINKER 2.7% 36.66 4
12 9 AMAZING STAR 1.6% 64.10 1
13 10 BUDDIES 1.4% 73.00 12
WELLINGTONSKY FIELDBEAUTY APPLAUSEWINNING DREAMERCOMPUTER PATCHSTRONGERBIG PARTYFAT TURTLEREGENCY LEGENDVOYAGE WARRIORWISHFUL THINKERAMAZING STAR — wonBUDDIES

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 1,796.5

PLACE

8 58.5

9 347.5

11 18

QUINELLA

8,9 9,937.5

QUINELLA PLACE

8,9 2,853.5

8,11 231

9,11 1,305.5

FORECAST

9,8 11,732

TIERCE

9,8,11 191,574

TRIO

8,9,11 23,966

FIRST 4

1,8,9,11 45,915

QUARTET

9,8,11,1 1,632,689

All pools (3 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A2

A3 33

8TH DOUBLE

8/8 146

8/9 3,245

WINNING TRAINER

B1

B3

B2

B4 18.5