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Sha Tin · 2021-04-05

Race 7

Class 4 GOOD 1600m Course B+2 14 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2021-04-05 was Class 4 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. MALDIVES, ridden by B Shinn and trained by D J Hall, won by 1/2, with EL JEFE second and TOYCOON third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.0 favourite VUKAN finished 9th.

Result

Official · 1.34.60
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 MALDIVES Closed strongly SR-/XB 1.34.60 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Shinn · D J Hall 3 13.0 1/2
2 6 EL JEFE Closed strongly XB/TT J Moreira · C H Yip 6 4.9 1/2
3 4 TOYCOON Closed strongly C L Chau · P F Yiu 1 7.1 1-3/4
4 1 PURE LEGEND V K H Chan · C Fownes 4 8.5 2-3/4
5 14 SEIZE THE SPIRIT K Teetan · Y S Tsui 14 36.0 4
6 10 COPARTNER ERA Closed strongly B M F Poon · W Y So 10 41.0 4
7 3 LEADING FORTUNE Closed strongly Z Purton · J Size 9 4.7 4
8 8 ON EXCEL STAR XB R Maia · C H Yip 13 117.0 4
9 5 VUKAN K C Leung · P O'Sullivan 5 4.0 6
10 7 STRATHMARTINE T Piccone · A T Millard 7 62.0 6-3/4
11 12 CALIFORNIA LEGEND Led early TT M L Yeung · A S Cruz 2 24.0 12-1/2
12 13 DAILY CHARM B/TT A Badel · C S Shum 12 11.0 15-1/4
13 9 RUN DES RUN B1/TT1 C Y Ho · K W Lui 11 121.0 19-3/4
14 11 HOLYSHOWCASING B- V Borges · D E Ferraris 8 230.0 40-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MALDIVES2. EL JEFE+0.5L3. TOYCOON+1.75L4. PURE LEGEND+2.75L5. SEIZE THE SPIRIT+4L6. COPARTNER ERA+4L7. LEADING FORTUNE+4L8. ON EXCEL STAR+4L9. VUKAN+6L10. STRATHMARTINE+6.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick EL JEFE (20.9%) finished 2nd — the winner MALDIVES was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 EL JEFE 20.9% 4.79 2
2 5 VUKAN 16.4% 6.09 9
3 2 MALDIVES 10.3% 9.67 1
4 13 DAILY CHARM 9.8% 10.23 12
5 3 LEADING FORTUNE 9.6% 10.47 7
6 4 TOYCOON 8.9% 11.22 3
7 1 PURE LEGEND 7.2% 13.88 4
8 14 SEIZE THE SPIRIT 5.5% 18.20 5
9 10 COPARTNER ERA 3.4% 29.56 6
10 12 CALIFORNIA LEGEND 2.7% 36.91 11
11 8 ON EXCEL STAR 1.9% 51.59 8
12 7 STRATHMARTINE 1.6% 63.79 10
13 9 RUN DES RUN 1.1% 90.55 13
14 11 HOLYSHOWCASING 0.7% 142.15 14
EL JEFEVUKANMALDIVES — wonDAILY CHARMLEADING FORTUNETOYCOONPURE LEGENDSEIZE THE SPIRITCOPARTNER ERACALIFORNIA LEGENDON EXCEL STARSTRATHMARTINERUN DES RUNHOLYSHOWCASING

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 132.5

PLACE

2 29.5

4 24

6 17.5

QUINELLA

2,6 284

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 130

2,6 93

4,6 70.5

FORECAST

2,6 868

TIERCE

2,6,4 5,944

TRIO

2,4,6 786

FIRST 4

1,2,4,6 1,082

QUARTET

2,6,4,1 31,618

All pools (3 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

1,2,11/2,4,6 6,491

3 PICK 1

A3 34.5

A1

A2

6TH DOUBLE

1/2 157.5

1/6 13