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Happy Valley · 2021-04-14

Race 2

Class 5 GOOD TO FIRM 1800m Course B 12 runners

Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2021-04-14 was Class 5 over 1800m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. ENJOYABLE SUCCESS, ridden by H W Lai and trained by Y S Tsui, won by 1-1/4, with JOY N FUN LEGEND second and SKY GEM third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.7 favourite SKY GEM finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.50.36
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 ENJOYABLE SUCCESS Closed strongly B 1.50.36 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H W Lai · Y S Tsui 7 18.0 1-1/4
2 12 JOY N FUN LEGEND Closed strongly M Chadwick · T P Yung 12 24.0 1-1/4
3 9 SKY GEM Closed strongly PC- J Moreira · C Fownes 11 3.7 2-3/4
4 8 EVEN KEEL Closed strongly B/XB B Shinn · A T Millard 2 13.0 3
5 6 FAIRY FLOSS CP/H K Teetan · P O'Sullivan 9 4.2 3
6 5 WEALTHY EMPLOYEE Closed strongly B C Y Ho · K H Ting 8 32.0 3-3/4
7 2 BABY STORM H/P/TT K C Leung · L Ho 3 8.0 5
8 10 HAPPY HOUR CP-/E/TT Z Purton · C H Yip 5 7.2 5-1/4
9 7 INDIGENOUS STAR R Maia · C W Chang 6 19.0 6-1/4
10 4 VIRTUS STAR Led early TT A Badel · F C Lor 10 8.5 7
11 3 SOCCER MASTER B/TT M L Yeung · W Y So 1 16.0 7-1/2
12 1 SUNNY SMILE B/TT T Piccone · D E Ferraris 4 60.0 24-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ENJOYABLE SUCCESS2. JOY N FUN LEGEND+1.25L3. SKY GEM+2.75L4. EVEN KEEL+3L5. FAIRY FLOSS+3L6. WEALTHY EMPLOYEE+3.75L7. BABY STORM+5L8. HAPPY HOUR+5.25L9. INDIGENOUS STAR+6.25L10. VIRTUS STAR+7L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick HAPPY HOUR (26.7%) finished 8th — the winner ENJOYABLE SUCCESS was rated #11. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 10 HAPPY HOUR 26.7% 3.74 8
2 9 SKY GEM 18.9% 5.28 3
3 6 FAIRY FLOSS 17.6% 5.70 5
4 2 BABY STORM 11.0% 9.07 7
5 4 VIRTUS STAR 9.1% 11.05 10
6 8 EVEN KEEL 4.0% 25.04 4
7 7 INDIGENOUS STAR 3.5% 28.98 9
8 12 JOY N FUN LEGEND 2.5% 40.23 2
9 5 WEALTHY EMPLOYEE 2.2% 45.08 6
10 3 SOCCER MASTER 2.0% 49.99 11
11 11 ENJOYABLE SUCCESS 1.6% 60.66 1
12 1 SUNNY SMILE 0.9% 110.73 12
HAPPY HOURSKY GEMFAIRY FLOSSBABY STORMVIRTUS STAREVEN KEELINDIGENOUS STARJOY N FUN LEGENDWEALTHY EMPLOYEESOCCER MASTERENJOYABLE SUCCESS — wonSUNNY SMILE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 185.5

PLACE

9 14

11 43.5

12 65

QUINELLA

11,12 1,405

QUINELLA PLACE

9,11 137.5

9,12 243.5

11,12 407

FORECAST

11,12 2,534

TIERCE

11,12,9 20,757

TRIO

9,11,12 2,975

FIRST 4

8,9,11,12 6,121

QUARTET

11,12,9,8 153,456

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

11/11 4,474

11/12 1,184

3 PICK 1

A2

A3 30.5

A1