Happy Valley · 2021-04-14
Race 9
Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2021-04-14 was Class 2 over 1800m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. CHARITY FUN, ridden by Z Purton and trained by C S Shum, won by 3/4, with SAVAQUIN second and GREEN LUCK third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.2 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | CHARITY FUN Closed strongly TT 1.49.42 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 2 | 2.2 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 9 | SAVAQUIN Closed strongly A Badel · J Size | A Badel | J Size | 12 | 9.8 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 2 | GREEN LUCK Closed strongly J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 5 | 5.3 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 6 | BERLIN TANGO Closed strongly H1/TT C Y Ho · A S Cruz | C Y Ho | A S Cruz | 8 | 10.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 10 | TSAR H K C Leung · Y S Tsui | K C Leung | Y S Tsui | 4 | 8.5 | 1-1/2 |
| 6 | 3 | LAKESHORE EAGLE Closed strongly SR1/XB1 C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 10 | 21.0 | 2 |
| 7 | 8 | RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE Closed strongly XB M Chadwick · C W Chang | M Chadwick | C W Chang | 3 | 30.0 | 2 |
| 8 | 1 | RELIABLE TEAM Led early V K Teetan · F C Lor | K Teetan | F C Lor | 11 | 22.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 9 | 5 | MAGNIFICENT V Borges · K H Ting | V Borges | K H Ting | 6 | 27.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 10 | 11 | TIANCHI MONSTER C Wong · W Y So | C Wong | W Y So | 7 | 39.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 11 | 4 | FLYING QUEST B C Schofield · D J Hall | C Schofield | D J Hall | 1 | 28.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 12 | 12 | ELITE PATCH B/H/TT M L Yeung · K W Lui | M L Yeung | K W Lui | 9 | 24.0 | 15 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | CHARITY FUN | 50.2% | 1.99 | 1 |
| 2 | 9 | SAVAQUIN | 14.3% | 7.01 | 2 |
| 3 | 2 | GREEN LUCK | 10.9% | 9.17 | 3 |
| 4 | 10 | TSAR | 4.2% | 23.58 | 5 |
| 5 | 3 | LAKESHORE EAGLE | 3.7% | 26.76 | 6 |
| 6 | 12 | ELITE PATCH | 3.3% | 29.97 | 12 |
| 7 | 1 | RELIABLE TEAM | 3.0% | 33.22 | 8 |
| 8 | 4 | FLYING QUEST | 2.7% | 36.75 | 11 |
| 9 | 5 | MAGNIFICENT | 2.6% | 38.61 | 9 |
| 10 | 8 | RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE | 2.0% | 49.61 | 7 |
| 11 | 11 | TIANCHI MONSTER | 1.8% | 55.74 | 10 |
| 12 | 6 | BERLIN TANGO | 1.2% | 83.68 | 4 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
7 22
PLACE
2 18
7 12.5
9 25
QUINELLA
7,9 85
QUINELLA PLACE
2,7 29.5
2,9 72.5
7,9 38
FORECAST
7,9 129
TIERCE
7,9,2 375
TRIO
2,7,9 118
FIRST 4
2,6,7,9 219
QUARTET
7,9,2,6 2,760
All pools (5 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 —
A1 15.5
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
5,8,11/2,7,9 5,208
8TH DOUBLE
5/7 175.5
5/9 123.5
SIX UP
1,8/4,5/1,4/2,5/5,8/7,9 2,053
8/5/4/2/5/7 406,975
1 [Z Purton] —
TREBLE
2/5/7 1,593
2/5/9 986