Happy Valley · 2021-04-14
Race 7
Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2021-04-14 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. YOUNG LEGEND, ridden by Z Purton and trained by C S Shum, won by N, with MCLUCKY second and WOOD ON FIRE third. Victory came as the 5.3 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | YOUNG LEGEND H/TT 1.09.60 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 1 | 5.3 | N |
| 2 | 5 | MCLUCKY SR C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 8 | 11.0 | N |
| 3 | 10 | WOOD ON FIRE H/V/TT K C Leung · L Ho | K C Leung | L Ho | 3 | 9.1 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 6 | KAI XIN DRAGON H-/TT C Schofield · D A Hayes | C Schofield | D A Hayes | 5 | 8.4 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 1 | STANLEY PARK B K Teetan · D E Ferraris | K Teetan | D E Ferraris | 10 | 9.9 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 3 | JOYFUL UNION R Maia · T P Yung | R Maia | T P Yung | 2 | 7.4 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 11 | DAILY BEAUTY TT J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 12 | 13.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 7 | HIGH RISE SOLDIER PC C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 9 | 8.4 | 3-3/4 |
| 9 | 9 | BEAUTY SPARK B/TT C Wong · F C Lor | C Wong | F C Lor | 7 | 15.0 | 4 |
| 10 | 8 | SHOUSON B A Hamelin · A T Millard | A Hamelin | A T Millard | 4 | 11.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 11 | 4 | IMA SINGLE MAN CP-/H/B2/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 6 | 8.6 | 6 |
| 12 | 12 | AQUILA V V Borges · K H Ting | V Borges | K H Ting | 11 | 51.0 | 19-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | DAILY BEAUTY | 17.1% | 5.86 | 7 |
| 2 | 3 | JOYFUL UNION | 12.7% | 7.87 | 6 |
| 3 | 8 | SHOUSON | 12.3% | 8.13 | 10 |
| 4 | 10 | WOOD ON FIRE | 10.6% | 9.45 | 3 |
| 5 | 1 | STANLEY PARK | 9.6% | 10.39 | 5 |
| 6 | 9 | BEAUTY SPARK | 7.1% | 14.11 | 9 |
| 7 | 4 | IMA SINGLE MAN | 6.3% | 15.75 | 11 |
| 8 | 7 | HIGH RISE SOLDIER | 6.1% | 16.33 | 8 |
| 9 | 2 | YOUNG LEGEND | 5.9% | 17.02 | 1 |
| 10 | 6 | KAI XIN DRAGON | 5.8% | 17.21 | 4 |
| 11 | 12 | AQUILA | 4.1% | 24.13 | 12 |
| 12 | 5 | MCLUCKY | 2.3% | 43.03 | 2 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 53
PLACE
2 20
5 39.5
10 27.5
QUINELLA
2,5 468
QUINELLA PLACE
2,5 166
2,10 84
5,10 216.5
FORECAST
2,5 731
TIERCE
2,5,10 6,746
TRIO
2,5,10 1,063
FIRST 4
2,5,6,10 2,909
QUARTET
2,5,10,6 65,793
All pools (5 more)
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
1,4,8/2,5,10 73,248
3 PICK 1
A1 31
A2 —
A3 —
6TH DOUBLE
4/2 112.5
4/5 118
TRIPLE TRIO
2,4,5/1,4,8/2,5,10 4,496,594
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
2,4,5/1,4,8/Any Combination 803