Happy Valley · 2021-04-14
Race 3
Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2021-04-14 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. SPONTANEOUS, ridden by Z Purton and trained by P O'Sullivan, won by 1-1/4, with COLONEL second and MOONLUCK third. Victory came as the 3.6 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | SPONTANEOUS 1.10.08 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · P O'Sullivan | Z Purton | P O'Sullivan | 10 | 3.6 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 2 | COLONEL V V Borges · P F Yiu | V Borges | P F Yiu | 4 | 11.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 8 | MOONLUCK C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 2 | 11.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 4 | 12 | OURGOLDENRULES B/XB M Chadwick · D J Whyte | M Chadwick | D J Whyte | 3 | 34.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 11 | SUNNY AND GOLD H/TT J Moreira · C H Yip | J Moreira | C H Yip | 6 | 5.7 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 3 | GOOD SHOT XB C Schofield · D J Hall | C Schofield | D J Hall | 7 | 7.6 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 4 | CORDYCEPS TWO K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 1 | 18.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 6 | SHENRON XB1/TT1 B Shinn · D A Hayes | B Shinn | D A Hayes | 8 | 4.9 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 9 | DAY DAY RICH B/TT H T Mo · T P Yung | H T Mo | T P Yung | 9 | 57.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 10 | 7 | THE MINT H1/V1/TT R Maia · K H Ting | R Maia | K H Ting | 11 | 108.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 11 | 5 | MASTER ALBERT B/E/TT A Hamelin · W Y So | A Hamelin | W Y So | 12 | 32.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 12 | 10 | VIVA CHEF B-/V1 A Badel · L Ho | A Badel | L Ho | 5 | 8.9 | 9 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | SPONTANEOUS | 28.2% | 3.55 | 1 |
| 2 | 11 | SUNNY AND GOLD | 19.8% | 5.05 | 5 |
| 3 | 8 | MOONLUCK | 12.5% | 8.03 | 3 |
| 4 | 3 | GOOD SHOT | 11.9% | 8.38 | 6 |
| 5 | 10 | VIVA CHEF | 10.8% | 9.26 | 12 |
| 6 | 2 | COLONEL | 3.8% | 26.65 | 2 |
| 7 | 5 | MASTER ALBERT | 3.3% | 30.61 | 11 |
| 8 | 12 | OURGOLDENRULES | 3.2% | 31.45 | 4 |
| 9 | 6 | SHENRON | 2.3% | 43.20 | 8 |
| 10 | 9 | DAY DAY RICH | 2.2% | 45.55 | 9 |
| 11 | 4 | CORDYCEPS TWO | 1.4% | 69.77 | 7 |
| 12 | 7 | THE MINT | 0.7% | 148.99 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 36
PLACE
1 15
2 32.5
8 36.5
QUINELLA
1,2 183.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 67.5
1,8 72
2,8 175
FORECAST
1,2 364
TIERCE
1,2,8 1,972
TRIO
1,2,8 607
FIRST 4
1,2,8,12 2,676
QUARTET
1,2,8,12 27,687
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE
11/1 827
11/2 249
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 27.5
A3 —