Happy Valley · 2021-04-28
Race 1
Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2021-04-28 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. RED MAJESTY, ridden by Z Purton and trained by D A Hayes, won by 1, with WONDER EXPRESS second and APOLAR WARRIOR third. The winner led throughout. Victory came as the 4.4 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | RED MAJESTY Wire to wire B/TT 1.39.81 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · D A Hayes | Z Purton | D A Hayes | 6 | 4.4 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | WONDER EXPRESS Closed strongly CP-/B2/TT C Y Ho · K H Ting | C Y Ho | K H Ting | 1 | 12.0 | 1 |
| 3 | 6 | APOLAR WARRIOR Closed strongly V H Bentley · P F Yiu | H Bentley | P F Yiu | 5 | 11.0 | 1 |
| 4 | 10 | EVEN KEEL Closed strongly B/XB K Teetan · A T Millard | K Teetan | A T Millard | 2 | 5.1 | 4 |
| 5 | 11 | BLAZING PARTNERS B R Maia · D E Ferraris | R Maia | D E Ferraris | 4 | 8.4 | 4-3/4 |
| 6 | 2 | SPEED TO EXCEED Closed strongly XB A Badel · R Gibson | A Badel | R Gibson | 7 | 10.0 | 6 |
| 7 | 1 | SMART COUSIN J Moreira · C H Yip | J Moreira | C H Yip | 3 | 5.5 | 6-1/2 |
| 8 | 3 | SHANGHAI GRACE M F Poon · Y S Tsui | M F Poon | Y S Tsui | 10 | 8.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 9 | 8 | LAOS ENLIGHTENMENT Closed strongly B/TT K C Leung · L Ho | K C Leung | L Ho | 12 | 56.0 | 8 |
| 10 | 7 | BRAVE POWER B/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 8 | 52.0 | 9-3/4 |
| 11 | 4 | DIAMOND STAR E/TT V Borges · J Size | V Borges | J Size | 11 | 23.0 | 10-3/4 |
| 12 | 12 | KEEP WINNING TT M L Yeung · C W Chang | M L Yeung | C W Chang | 9 | 36.0 | 12-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | RED MAJESTY | 25.8% | 3.87 | 1 |
| 2 | 1 | SMART COUSIN | 16.0% | 6.23 | 7 |
| 3 | 5 | WONDER EXPRESS | 12.0% | 8.35 | 2 |
| 4 | 10 | EVEN KEEL | 9.2% | 10.84 | 4 |
| 5 | 6 | APOLAR WARRIOR | 7.5% | 13.35 | 3 |
| 6 | 11 | BLAZING PARTNERS | 6.8% | 14.81 | 5 |
| 7 | 2 | SPEED TO EXCEED | 5.6% | 17.84 | 6 |
| 8 | 4 | DIAMOND STAR | 4.4% | 22.91 | 11 |
| 9 | 3 | SHANGHAI GRACE | 4.1% | 24.33 | 8 |
| 10 | 7 | BRAVE POWER | 3.6% | 27.78 | 10 |
| 11 | 12 | KEEP WINNING | 2.6% | 38.41 | 12 |
| 12 | 8 | LAOS ENLIGHTENMENT | 2.4% | 42.04 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
9 44
PLACE
5 37.5
6 39
9 19
QUINELLA
5,9 297.5
QUINELLA PLACE
5,6 214
5,9 110.5
6,9 91
FORECAST
9,5 447
TIERCE
9,5,6 4,234
TRIO
5,6,9 1,064
FIRST 4
5,6,9,10 1,335
QUARTET
9,5,6,10 23,395
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 —
A1 24.5