Happy Valley · 2021-04-28
Race 6
Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2021-04-28 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. SNAP FIT, ridden by K H Chan and trained by C Fownes, won by N, with CALIFORNIA CONCORD second and SPARKLING DRAGON third. The 3.4 favourite CALIFORNIA CONCORD finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | SNAP FIT B/TT 1.09.97 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K H Chan · C Fownes | K H Chan | C Fownes | 8 | 9.5 | N |
| 2 | 4 | CALIFORNIA CONCORD B/TT J Moreira · A S Cruz | J Moreira | A S Cruz | 1 | 3.4 | N |
| 3 | 1 | SPARKLING DRAGON TT A Hamelin · A T Millard | A Hamelin | A T Millard | 7 | 11.0 | N |
| 4 | 8 | KING'S CAPITAL XB M L Yeung · D A Hayes | M L Yeung | D A Hayes | 3 | 11.0 | 3/4 |
| 5 | 7 | STOICISM H Bentley · D E Ferraris | H Bentley | D E Ferraris | 5 | 7.2 | 1-1/4 |
| 6 | 2 | BEAUTY RUSH E Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 6 | 5.4 | 1-1/2 |
| 7 | 10 | JAZZ STEED B/TT K Teetan · C Fownes | K Teetan | C Fownes | 9 | 9.2 | 2-1/4 |
| 8 | 6 | TRIPLE TRIPLE CP M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | 4 | 5.6 | 2-3/4 |
| 9 | 9 | MEHBOOB B/XB M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan | M Chadwick | P O'Sullivan | 2 | 26.0 | 6-1/4 |
| — | 5 | LINCOLN BRIGHT K C Leung · R Gibson | K C Leung | R Gibson | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | CALIFORNIA CONCORD | 29.0% | 3.44 | 2 |
| 2 | 6 | TRIPLE TRIPLE | 15.9% | 6.29 | 8 |
| 3 | 2 | BEAUTY RUSH | 14.4% | 6.96 | 6 |
| 4 | 3 | SNAP FIT | 9.0% | 11.13 | 1 |
| 5 | 8 | KING'S CAPITAL | 8.1% | 12.32 | 4 |
| 6 | 10 | JAZZ STEED | 7.4% | 13.43 | 7 |
| 7 | 9 | MEHBOOB | 6.9% | 14.41 | 9 |
| 8 | 1 | SPARKLING DRAGON | 4.9% | 20.39 | 3 |
| 9 | 7 | STOICISM | 4.3% | 23.37 | 5 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 95.5
PLACE
1 32.5
3 29
4 14
QUINELLA
3,4 212.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,3 176.5
1,4 85
3,4 71
FORECAST
3,4 590
TIERCE
3,4,1 5,119
TRIO
1,3,4 839
FIRST 4
1,3,4,8 1,557
QUARTET
3,4,1,8 40,512
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 27
A2 —
A1 —
5TH DOUBLE
7/3 1,346
7/4,5 56