Happy Valley · 2021-04-28
Race 4
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2021-04-28 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. SWOT TROOPERS WIND, ridden by K C Leung and trained by D J Hall, won by NOSE, with MANNA FROM HEAVEN second and NITRO EXPRESS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 5.0 favourite MANNA FROM HEAVEN finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | SWOT TROOPERS WIND Closed strongly B 1.40.26 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · D J Hall | K C Leung | D J Hall | 6 | 5.3 | NOSE |
| 2 | 1 | MANNA FROM HEAVEN Led early XB C Schofield · K L Man | C Schofield | K L Man | 3 | 5.0 | NOSE |
| 3 | 11 | NITRO EXPRESS Closed strongly B/TT J Moreira · D E Ferraris | J Moreira | D E Ferraris | 9 | 6.3 | 1 |
| 4 | 5 | PRESIDENT STAR B/TT Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 5 | 7.9 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 4 | KA FORTUNE B R Maia · P O'Sullivan | R Maia | P O'Sullivan | 8 | 21.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 6 | REGENCY GEM TT K Teetan · W Y So | K Teetan | W Y So | 2 | 5.1 | 2-1/4 |
| 7 | 10 | CENTENARY IBIS B-/XB/TT1 A Hamelin · A T Millard | A Hamelin | A T Millard | 1 | 42.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 7 | VIRTUS STAR TT A Badel · F C Lor | A Badel | F C Lor | 4 | 18.0 | 4 |
| 9 | 9 | SPEED FORCE Closed strongly SR/XB/CP1 H Bentley · D J Whyte | H Bentley | D J Whyte | 10 | 16.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 10 | 3 | TAILOR MADE V/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 7 | 7.6 | 6-1/4 |
| 11 | 8 | AFRICAN SKY B/TT- M Chadwick · T P Yung | M Chadwick | T P Yung | 11 | 165.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 11 | 12 | ENJOYABLE SUCCESS Closed strongly B H W Lai · Y S Tsui | H W Lai | Y S Tsui | 12 | 38.0 | 6-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | PRESIDENT STAR | 23.2% | 4.30 | 4 |
| 2 | 6 | REGENCY GEM | 11.2% | 8.90 | 6 |
| 3 | 1 | MANNA FROM HEAVEN | 11.2% | 8.90 | 2 |
| 4 | 3 | TAILOR MADE | 10.6% | 9.39 | 10 |
| 5 | 11 | NITRO EXPRESS | 9.5% | 10.58 | 3 |
| 6 | 2 | SWOT TROOPERS WIND | 7.3% | 13.61 | 1 |
| 7 | 4 | KA FORTUNE | 6.7% | 14.91 | 5 |
| 8 | 7 | VIRTUS STAR | 5.3% | 18.74 | 8 |
| 9 | 9 | SPEED FORCE | 5.2% | 19.38 | 9 |
| 10 | 10 | CENTENARY IBIS | 3.8% | 26.53 | 7 |
| 11 | 12 | ENJOYABLE SUCCESS | 3.4% | 29.11 | 11 |
| 12 | 8 | AFRICAN SKY | 2.4% | 41.03 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 53
PLACE
1 18.5
2 16.5
11 25.5
QUINELLA
1,2 149
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 59
1,11 67
2,11 69.5
FORECAST
2,1 340
TIERCE
2,1,11 2,062
TRIO
1,2,11 392
FIRST 4
1,2,5,11 605
QUARTET
2,1,11,5 13,865
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 24.5
A1 —
A2 —
3RD DOUBLE
7/1 37.5
7/2 285