Happy Valley · 2021-04-28
Race 7
Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2021-04-28 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. HERO STAR, ridden by K C Leung and trained by K L Man, won by 1/2, with SIGHT HERO second and HAPPILY FRIENDS third. The 3.3 favourite STAR OF WUYI finished 7th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | HERO STAR TT 1.10.15 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 6 | 10.0 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 9 | SIGHT HERO CP C Schofield · D A Hayes | C Schofield | D A Hayes | 3 | 7.0 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 12 | HAPPILY FRIENDS H V Borges · K H Ting | V Borges | K H Ting | 2 | 9.5 | 1 |
| 4 | 7 | GOOD BUDDY A Badel · D J Hall | A Badel | D J Hall | 10 | 23.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 5 | CHIKORITA XB A Hamelin · C W Chang | A Hamelin | C W Chang | 5 | 13.0 | 2 |
| 6 | 1 | ARES M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | 1 | 4.1 | 2 |
| 7 | 6 | STAR OF WUYI B J Moreira · K W Lui | J Moreira | K W Lui | 11 | 3.3 | 2-1/4 |
| 8 | 4 | XPONENTIAL CP/SR2 B Shinn · D J Whyte | B Shinn | D J Whyte | 8 | 17.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 9 | 2 | JOLLY GOOD HEART K Teetan · T P Yung | K Teetan | T P Yung | 9 | 17.0 | 4 |
| 10 | 3 | EVER JOY XB1 Z Purton · P O'Sullivan | Z Purton | P O'Sullivan | 7 | 14.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 11 | 10 | SILVERY WARRIOR H/B1/TT H Bentley · R Gibson | H Bentley | R Gibson | 12 | 136.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 12 | 11 | DESTINE JEWELLERY B H N Wong · J Size | H N Wong | J Size | 4 | 61.0 | 6-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | SIGHT HERO | 17.7% | 5.64 | 2 |
| 2 | 3 | EVER JOY | 15.0% | 6.65 | 10 |
| 3 | 6 | STAR OF WUYI | 14.6% | 6.86 | 7 |
| 4 | 2 | JOLLY GOOD HEART | 12.9% | 7.76 | 9 |
| 5 | 1 | ARES | 9.6% | 10.46 | 6 |
| 6 | 8 | HERO STAR | 8.7% | 11.51 | 1 |
| 7 | 12 | HAPPILY FRIENDS | 6.9% | 14.56 | 3 |
| 8 | 5 | CHIKORITA | 5.2% | 19.20 | 5 |
| 9 | 4 | XPONENTIAL | 3.8% | 26.33 | 8 |
| 10 | 11 | DESTINE JEWELLERY | 2.0% | 49.79 | 12 |
| 11 | 7 | GOOD BUDDY | 1.9% | 51.63 | 4 |
| 12 | 10 | SILVERY WARRIOR | 1.7% | 58.26 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
8 107.5
PLACE
8 33
9 21.5
12 26
QUINELLA
8,9 325.5
QUINELLA PLACE
8,9 106.5
8,12 139.5
9,12 98.5
FORECAST
8,9 924
TIERCE
8,9,12 5,738
TRIO
8,9,12 927
FIRST 4
7,8,9,12 4,281
QUARTET
8,9,12,7 113,316
All pools (4 more)
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
1,3>4,5/8,9,12 79,562
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 24.5
A3 —
6TH DOUBLE
3/8 1,510.5
3/9 148.5
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
1,7,8/1,3>4,5/Any Combination 8,204