Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2021-05-16

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD (AWT) 1200m 12 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2021-05-16 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. REGENCY GEM, ridden by K Teetan and trained by W Y So, won by N, with MASTERWORK second and VALIANT ELEGANCE third. The 3.2 favourite GOLDEN MISSION finished 11th.

Result

Official · 1.09.84
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 REGENCY GEM B/TT 1.09.84 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · W Y So 7 18.0 N
2 7 MASTERWORK H- C Y Ho · Y S Tsui 2 7.0 N
3 1 VALIANT ELEGANCE B/TT C L Chau · D J Whyte 8 5.9 1
4 10 TIGERLAD B/TT M F Poon · A T Millard 10 9.9 1-1/4
5 8 YEE CHEONG LUCKY B/TT Z Purton · C S Shum 6 10.0 1-1/2
6 11 LUCKY VICTOR B/TT M L Yeung · K H Ting 1 40.0 4-1/2
7 3 WINNING STRIKES CP/TT K C Leung · P O'Sullivan 5 11.0 5-1/2
8 12 DASHING GRACE V/TT H T Mo · T P Yung 9 155.0 6-1/2
9 5 CHUNGHWA JINGSHEN V A Hamelin · L Ho 4 20.0 7-3/4
10 2 ATHENA TT H Bentley · C H Yip 3 42.0 12-1/2
11 9 GOLDEN MISSION B J Moreira · C W Chang 12 3.2 14-3/4
12 4 SUPREME PATROL B/TT A Badel · D E Ferraris 11 6.4 18-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. REGENCY GEM2. MASTERWORK+0.05L3. VALIANT ELEGANCE+1L4. TIGERLAD+1.25L5. YEE CHEONG LUCKY+1.5L6. LUCKY VICTOR+4.5L7. WINNING STRIKES+5.5L8. DASHING GRACE+6.5L9. CHUNGHWA JINGSHEN+7.75L10. ATHENA+12.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick YEE CHEONG LUCKY (15.6%) finished 5th — the winner REGENCY GEM was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 YEE CHEONG LUCKY 15.6% 6.42 5
2 6 REGENCY GEM 15.6% 6.43 1
3 9 GOLDEN MISSION 14.7% 6.82 11
4 1 VALIANT ELEGANCE 14.4% 6.94 3
5 10 TIGERLAD 8.7% 11.43 4
6 3 WINNING STRIKES 7.4% 13.54 7
7 4 SUPREME PATROL 6.6% 15.15 12
8 5 CHUNGHWA JINGSHEN 5.4% 18.40 9
9 11 LUCKY VICTOR 4.5% 22.09 6
10 2 ATHENA 3.2% 31.02 10
11 7 MASTERWORK 2.5% 40.54 2
12 12 DASHING GRACE 1.4% 70.93 8
YEE CHEONG LUCKYREGENCY GEM — wonGOLDEN MISSIONVALIANT ELEGANCETIGERLADWINNING STRIKESSUPREME PATROLCHUNGHWA JINGSHENLUCKY VICTORATHENAMASTERWORKDASHING GRACE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 185.5

PLACE

1 19

6 47.5

7 28.5

QUINELLA

6,7 902

QUINELLA PLACE

1,6 112.5

1,7 96

6,7 244

FORECAST

6,7 1,981

TIERCE

6,7,1 13,899

TRIO

1,6,7 1,286

FIRST 4

1,6,7,10 3,875

QUARTET

6,7,1,10 145,447

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A2

A3 25