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Sha Tin · 2021-05-16

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1600m Course C+3 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.33.99
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 BEAUTY FIT Closed strongly E 1.33.99 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Size 2 2.7 N
2 0 ALL FOR ST PAUL'S Led early B M F Poon · F C Lor 14 5.8 N
3 0 SACRED IBIS Closed strongly XB A Hamelin · A T Millard 9 16.0 1-1/2
4 0 DECISIVE ACTION CP/TT K Teetan · C S Shum 8 9.2 2-3/4
5 0 PERFECT TO GREAT Closed strongly V K H Chan · C Fownes 1 9.9 3
6 0 HELENE WISDOM STAR Closed strongly H/TT J Moreira · A S Cruz 6 6.5 3-1/4
7 0 TURQUOISE ALPHA CP K C Leung · P O'Sullivan 5 23.0 5
8 0 KASI FARASI Closed strongly C L Chau · C H Yip 4 9.2 6-3/4
9 0 NATURAL STORM Closed strongly B H Bentley · P F Yiu 10 53.0 7
10 0 MEANINGFUL STAR B C Y Ho · K W Lui 11 17.0 8-1/4
11 0 LONDON HALL Closed strongly B H T Mo · D J Hall 3 121.0 8-3/4
12 0 CHAMPION PAL Closed strongly B V Borges · P O'Sullivan 7 178.0 9-1/2
13 0 VITRALITE XB A Badel · K W Lui 13 99.0 9-1/2
14 0 SUPER BUDDY B R Maia · D A Hayes 12 171.0 11-1/2

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2021-05-16 was Class 3 over 1600m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. BEAUTY FIT, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Size, won by N, with ALL FOR ST PAUL'S second and SACRED IBIS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.7 favourite.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BEAUTY FIT—2. ALL FOR ST PAUL'S+0.05L3. SACRED IBIS+1.5L4. DECISIVE ACTION+2.75L5. PERFECT TO GREAT+3L6. HELENE WISDOM STAR+3.25L7. TURQUOISE ALPHA+5L8. KASI FARASI+6.75L9. NATURAL STORM+7L10. MEANINGFUL STAR+8.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick HELENE WISDOM STAR (26.6%) finished 6th — the winner BEAUTY FIT was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 HELENE WISDOM STAR 26.6% 3.77 6
2 0 BEAUTY FIT 20.2% 4.94 1
3 0 PERFECT TO GREAT 13.3% 7.50 5
4 0 ALL FOR ST PAUL'S 12.2% 8.19 2
5 0 KASI FARASI 7.8% 12.88 8
6 0 DECISIVE ACTION 6.9% 14.47 4
7 0 NATURAL STORM 3.0% 33.72 9
8 0 MEANINGFUL STAR 2.9% 34.37 10
9 0 LONDON HALL 2.4% 41.36 11
10 0 SACRED IBIS 2.0% 49.10 3
11 0 TURQUOISE ALPHA 1.1% 86.99 7
12 0 VITRALITE 0.7% 151.89 13
13 0 SUPER BUDDY 0.5% 205.45 14
14 0 CHAMPION PAL 0.4% 265.27 12
HELENE WISDOM STARBEAUTY FIT — wonPERFECT TO GREATALL FOR ST PAUL'SKASI FARASIDECISIVE ACTIONNATURAL STORMMEANINGFUL STARLONDON HALLSACRED IBISTURQUOISE ALPHAVITRALITESUPER BUDDYCHAMPION PAL

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 27.5

PLACE

5 20

7 14.5

12 49

QUINELLA

5,7 82

QUINELLA PLACE

5,7 34

5,12 189.5

7,12 105

FORECAST

7,5 133

TIERCE

7,5,12 2,157

TRIO

5,7,12 487

FIRST 4

5,7,12,14 862

QUARTET

7,5,12,14 11,813

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A1 19.5

A3 —

8TH DOUBLE

10,11/5 28

10,11/7 81