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Sha Tin · 2021-05-16

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1600m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2021-05-16 was Class 3 over 1600m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. BEAUTY FIT, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Size, won by N, with ALL FOR ST PAUL'S second and SACRED IBIS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.7 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.33.99
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 BEAUTY FIT Closed strongly E 1.33.99 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Size 2 2.7 N
2 5 ALL FOR ST PAUL'S Led early B M F Poon · F C Lor 14 5.8 N
3 12 SACRED IBIS Closed strongly XB A Hamelin · A T Millard 9 16.0 1-1/2
4 14 DECISIVE ACTION CP/TT K Teetan · C S Shum 8 9.2 2-3/4
5 3 PERFECT TO GREAT Closed strongly V K H Chan · C Fownes 1 9.9 3
6 1 HELENE WISDOM STAR Closed strongly H/TT J Moreira · A S Cruz 6 6.5 3-1/4
7 13 TURQUOISE ALPHA CP K C Leung · P O'Sullivan 5 23.0 5
8 9 KASI FARASI Closed strongly C L Chau · C H Yip 4 9.2 6-3/4
9 11 NATURAL STORM Closed strongly B H Bentley · P F Yiu 10 53.0 7
10 10 MEANINGFUL STAR B C Y Ho · K W Lui 11 17.0 8-1/4
11 4 LONDON HALL Closed strongly B H T Mo · D J Hall 3 121.0 8-3/4
12 8 CHAMPION PAL Closed strongly B V Borges · P O'Sullivan 7 178.0 9-1/2
13 6 VITRALITE XB A Badel · K W Lui 13 99.0 9-1/2
14 2 SUPER BUDDY B R Maia · D A Hayes 12 171.0 11-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BEAUTY FIT2. ALL FOR ST PAUL'S+0.05L3. SACRED IBIS+1.5L4. DECISIVE ACTION+2.75L5. PERFECT TO GREAT+3L6. HELENE WISDOM STAR+3.25L7. TURQUOISE ALPHA+5L8. KASI FARASI+6.75L9. NATURAL STORM+7L10. MEANINGFUL STAR+8.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick HELENE WISDOM STAR (26.6%) finished 6th — the winner BEAUTY FIT was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 HELENE WISDOM STAR 26.6% 3.77 6
2 7 BEAUTY FIT 20.2% 4.94 1
3 3 PERFECT TO GREAT 13.3% 7.50 5
4 5 ALL FOR ST PAUL'S 12.2% 8.19 2
5 9 KASI FARASI 7.8% 12.88 8
6 14 DECISIVE ACTION 6.9% 14.47 4
7 11 NATURAL STORM 3.0% 33.72 9
8 10 MEANINGFUL STAR 2.9% 34.37 10
9 4 LONDON HALL 2.4% 41.36 11
10 12 SACRED IBIS 2.0% 49.10 3
11 13 TURQUOISE ALPHA 1.1% 86.99 7
12 6 VITRALITE 0.7% 151.89 13
13 2 SUPER BUDDY 0.5% 205.45 14
14 8 CHAMPION PAL 0.4% 265.27 12
HELENE WISDOM STARBEAUTY FIT — wonPERFECT TO GREATALL FOR ST PAUL'SKASI FARASIDECISIVE ACTIONNATURAL STORMMEANINGFUL STARLONDON HALLSACRED IBISTURQUOISE ALPHAVITRALITESUPER BUDDYCHAMPION PAL

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 27.5

PLACE

5 20

7 14.5

12 49

QUINELLA

5,7 82

QUINELLA PLACE

5,7 34

5,12 189.5

7,12 105

FORECAST

7,5 133

TIERCE

7,5,12 2,157

TRIO

5,7,12 487

FIRST 4

5,7,12,14 862

QUARTET

7,5,12,14 11,813

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A1 19.5

A2

8TH DOUBLE

10,11/5 28

10,11/7 81