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Sha Tin · 2021-05-16

Race 8

Class 2 GOOD TO FIRM 1000m Course C+3 13 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2021-05-16 was Class 2 over 1000m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. VALIANT DREAM, ridden by K Teetan and trained by K W Lui, won by 1/2, with LUCKY MORE second and GOLD CHEST third. Victory came as the 3.2 favourite.

Result

Official · 0.54.68
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 VALIANT DREAM 0.54.68 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · K W Lui 11 3.2 1/2
2 8 LUCKY MORE Z Purton · C S Shum 7 9.0 1/2
3 6 GOLD CHEST CP/TT C L Chau · R Gibson 12 8.4 1-1/2
4 12 CZARSON CP/TT H Bentley · P F Yiu 14 63.0 3
5 14 GREEN AEON H1/TT A Badel · C Fownes 9 5.5 3-1/2
6 9 MASTER MONTARO CP-/B2 C Y Ho · D A Hayes 10 5.8 4-1/4
7 2 PING HAI BRAVO E/TT A Hamelin · J Size 2 8.4 4-1/2
8 1 EXPLOSIVE WITNESS K H Chan · C Fownes 6 22.0 5-1/4
9 13 FLYING GENIUS B/TT M L Yeung · A S Cruz 5 30.0 6
10 3 ASSIMILATE B/TT C Schofield · K H Ting 1 53.0 6-3/4
11 5 SHINING ACE B/TT V Borges · J Size 3 40.0 7
12 4 MASSIVE POCKET XB K C Leung · K W Lui 4 20.0 7-1/4
13 7 YEE CHEONG BABY TT R Maia · W Y So 8 56.0 8-1/4
10 MULTIMILLION J Moreira · A S Cruz

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. VALIANT DREAM2. LUCKY MORE+0.5L3. GOLD CHEST+1.5L4. CZARSON+3L5. GREEN AEON+3.5L6. MASTER MONTARO+4.25L7. PING HAI BRAVO+4.5L8. EXPLOSIVE WITNESS+5.25L9. FLYING GENIUS+6L10. ASSIMILATE+6.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick LUCKY MORE (23.0%) finished 2nd — the winner VALIANT DREAM was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 LUCKY MORE 23.0% 4.35 2
2 2 PING HAI BRAVO 14.2% 7.03 7
3 11 VALIANT DREAM 13.5% 7.42 1
4 9 MASTER MONTARO 9.5% 10.56 6
5 4 MASSIVE POCKET 7.1% 14.10 12
6 12 CZARSON 5.7% 17.60 4
7 6 GOLD CHEST 5.4% 18.61 3
8 14 GREEN AEON 5.1% 19.51 5
9 5 SHINING ACE 4.2% 23.54 11
10 13 FLYING GENIUS 3.9% 25.84 9
11 1 EXPLOSIVE WITNESS 3.4% 29.46 8
12 3 ASSIMILATE 2.9% 34.74 10
13 7 YEE CHEONG BABY 2.2% 46.33 13
LUCKY MOREPING HAI BRAVOVALIANT DREAM — wonMASTER MONTAROMASSIVE POCKETCZARSONGOLD CHESTGREEN AEONSHINING ACEFLYING GENIUSEXPLOSIVE WITNESSASSIMILATEYEE CHEONG BABY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 32.5

PLACE

6 30

8 31.5

11 14.5

QUINELLA

8,11 140

QUINELLA PLACE

6,8 114.5

6,11 54.5

8,11 54.5

FORECAST

11,8 386

TIERCE

11,8,6 2,898

TRIO

6,8,11 334

FIRST 4

6,8,11,12 4,271

QUARTET

11,8,6,12 60,259

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A1 32.5

A3

7TH DOUBLE

4/8 68

4/10,11 90.5