沙田 · 2021-05-16
第 8場
2021-05-16沙田第8場，Class 2，途程1000米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由K Teetan策騎、K W Lui訓練的VALIANT DREAM勝出，贏出1/2。LUCKY MORE獲得亞軍；GOLD CHEST獲得季軍。頭馬以3.2倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | VALIANT DREAM 0.54.68 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） K Teetan · K W Lui | K Teetan | K W Lui | 11 | 3.2 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 8 | LUCKY MORE Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 7 | 9.0 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 6 | GOLD CHEST CP/TT C L Chau · R Gibson | C L Chau | R Gibson | 12 | 8.4 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 12 | CZARSON CP/TT H Bentley · P F Yiu | H Bentley | P F Yiu | 14 | 63.0 | 3 |
| 5 | 14 | GREEN AEON H1/TT A Badel · C Fownes | A Badel | C Fownes | 9 | 5.5 | 3-1/2 |
| 6 | 9 | MASTER MONTARO CP-/B2 C Y Ho · D A Hayes | C Y Ho | D A Hayes | 10 | 5.8 | 4-1/4 |
| 7 | 2 | PING HAI BRAVO E/TT A Hamelin · J Size | A Hamelin | J Size | 2 | 8.4 | 4-1/2 |
| 8 | 1 | EXPLOSIVE WITNESS K H Chan · C Fownes | K H Chan | C Fownes | 6 | 22.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 9 | 13 | FLYING GENIUS B/TT M L Yeung · A S Cruz | M L Yeung | A S Cruz | 5 | 30.0 | 6 |
| 10 | 3 | ASSIMILATE B/TT C Schofield · K H Ting | C Schofield | K H Ting | 1 | 53.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 11 | 5 | SHINING ACE B/TT V Borges · J Size | V Borges | J Size | 3 | 40.0 | 7 |
| 12 | 4 | MASSIVE POCKET XB K C Leung · K W Lui | K C Leung | K W Lui | 4 | 20.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 13 | 7 | YEE CHEONG BABY TT R Maia · W Y So | R Maia | W Y So | 8 | 56.0 | 8-1/4 |
| — | 10 | MULTIMILLION J Moreira · A S Cruz | J Moreira | A S Cruz | — | — | — |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | LUCKY MORE | 23.0% | 4.35 | 2 |
| 2 | 2 | PING HAI BRAVO | 14.2% | 7.03 | 7 |
| 3 | 11 | VALIANT DREAM | 13.5% | 7.42 | 1 |
| 4 | 9 | MASTER MONTARO | 9.5% | 10.56 | 6 |
| 5 | 4 | MASSIVE POCKET | 7.1% | 14.10 | 12 |
| 6 | 12 | CZARSON | 5.7% | 17.60 | 4 |
| 7 | 6 | GOLD CHEST | 5.4% | 18.61 | 3 |
| 8 | 14 | GREEN AEON | 5.1% | 19.51 | 5 |
| 9 | 5 | SHINING ACE | 4.2% | 23.54 | 11 |
| 10 | 13 | FLYING GENIUS | 3.9% | 25.84 | 9 |
| 11 | 1 | EXPLOSIVE WITNESS | 3.4% | 29.46 | 8 |
| 12 | 3 | ASSIMILATE | 2.9% | 34.74 | 10 |
| 13 | 7 | YEE CHEONG BABY | 2.2% | 46.33 | 13 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
11 32.5
PLACE
6 30
8 31.5
11 14.5
QUINELLA
8,11 140
QUINELLA PLACE
6,8 114.5
6,11 54.5
8,11 54.5
FORECAST
11,8 386
TIERCE
11,8,6 2,898
TRIO
6,8,11 334
FIRST 4
6,8,11,12 4,271
QUARTET
11,8,6,12 60,259
全部彩池（另 2 項）
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 32.5
A3 —
7TH DOUBLE
4/8 68
4/10,11 90.5