沙田 · 2021-05-16
第 10場
2021-05-16沙田第10場，Class 2，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由C Schofield策騎、D A Hayes訓練的FANTASTIC TREASURE勝出，贏出3/4。E STAR獲得亞軍；HINCHINLOVE獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。頭馬以2.5倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | FANTASTIC TREASURE 後段發力 1.20.28 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） C Schofield · D A Hayes | C Schofield | D A Hayes | 10 | 2.5 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 9 | E STAR 後段發力 H Bentley · K L Man | H Bentley | K L Man | 11 | 58.0 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 6 | HINCHINLOVE B/TT K C Leung · T P Yung | K C Leung | T P Yung | 2 | 8.1 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 1 | NOT USUAL TALENT 後段發力 TT C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 7 | 7.5 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 8 | MAXIMUS SR K Teetan · A T Millard | K Teetan | A T Millard | 14 | 19.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 6 | 11 | SEA OF LIFE 後段發力 V C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 13 | 35.0 | 5 |
| 7 | 5 | ROMAN TURBO SR/TT A Badel · C S Shum | A Badel | C S Shum | 4 | 4.3 | 6 |
| 8 | 13 | PRIVATE ROCKET SR/XB V Borges · D J Whyte | V Borges | D J Whyte | 5 | 45.0 | 9-1/4 |
| 9 | 2 | BEAUTY SMILE B/TT Z Purton · A S Cruz | Z Purton | A S Cruz | 3 | 6.3 | 10-1/4 |
| 10 | 10 | SMILING TIME J Moreira · K H Ting | J Moreira | K H Ting | 1 | 68.0 | 11-1/4 |
| 11 | 7 | RACING FIGHTER B/TT C Wong · C H Yip | C Wong | C H Yip | 9 | 232.0 | 12-1/2 |
| 12 | 12 | ARTHUR'S KINGDOM H/XB M F Poon · Y S Tsui | M F Poon | Y S Tsui | 6 | 90.0 | 14-3/4 |
| 13 | 3 | BAND OF BROTHERS 後段發力 V A Hamelin · P O'Sullivan | A Hamelin | P O'Sullivan | 12 | 99.0 | 16-1/4 |
| 14 | 14 | TEAM SPIRIT 早段領放 B/TT M L Yeung · W Y So | M L Yeung | W Y So | 8 | 197.0 | 21 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | FANTASTIC TREASURE | 31.2% | 3.20 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | ROMAN TURBO | 16.5% | 6.06 | 7 |
| 3 | 2 | BEAUTY SMILE | 16.1% | 6.21 | 9 |
| 4 | 8 | MAXIMUS | 7.1% | 14.06 | 5 |
| 5 | 13 | PRIVATE ROCKET | 5.7% | 17.42 | 8 |
| 6 | 6 | HINCHINLOVE | 5.7% | 17.55 | 3 |
| 7 | 1 | NOT USUAL TALENT | 5.1% | 19.51 | 4 |
| 8 | 9 | E STAR | 3.4% | 29.48 | 2 |
| 9 | 11 | SEA OF LIFE | 2.7% | 36.46 | 6 |
| 10 | 3 | BAND OF BROTHERS | 2.4% | 40.88 | 13 |
| 11 | 7 | RACING FIGHTER | 1.3% | 77.26 | 11 |
| 12 | 10 | SMILING TIME | 1.1% | 87.27 | 10 |
| 13 | 14 | TEAM SPIRIT | 0.7% | 133.89 | 14 |
| 14 | 12 | ARTHUR'S KINGDOM | 0.7% | 136.37 | 12 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
4 25
PLACE
4 14.5
6 25
9 94.5
QUINELLA
4,9 675.5
QUINELLA PLACE
4,6 58
4,9 224.5
6,9 461.5
FORECAST
4,9 681
TIERCE
4,9,6 5,934
TRIO
4,6,9 1,549
FIRST 4
1,4,6,9 2,031
QUARTET
4,9,6,1 32,114
全部彩池（另 5 項）
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 25
A3 —
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
5,7,12/4,6,9 127,971
9TH DOUBLE
7/4 64.5
7/9 289.5
SIX UP
1/3/4/10,11/7/4 642,904
1,13/3,9/2,4/8,10,11/5,7/4,9 1,789
1 [Z Purton] —
TREBLE
10,11/7/4 174
10,11/7/9 972