沙田 · 2021-05-16
第 3場
2021-05-16沙田第3場，Class 4，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由J Moreira策騎、F C Lor訓練的MASTER EIGHT勝出，贏出3-1/4。FIRE BALL獲得亞軍；PACKING AWARD獲得季軍。頭馬以1.7倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | MASTER EIGHT 1.08.40 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） J Moreira · F C Lor | J Moreira | F C Lor | 9 | 1.7 | 3-1/4 |
| 2 | 7 | FIRE BALL TT H Bentley · C H Yip | H Bentley | C H Yip | 2 | 9.2 | 3-1/4 |
| 3 | 5 | PACKING AWARD H Z Purton · D A Hayes | Z Purton | D A Hayes | 7 | 6.2 | 3-1/4 |
| 4 | 11 | DESTINE JEWELLERY B V Borges · J Size | V Borges | J Size | 1 | 55.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 5 | 4 | PARTY GENIUS CP/XB K Teetan · D J Whyte | K Teetan | D J Whyte | 11 | 7.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 6 | 2 | HARDLY SWEARS K C Leung · K H Ting | K C Leung | K H Ting | 4 | 14.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 7 | 8 | VICTORY MORE H C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 5 | 159.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 8 | 3 | GOOD BEAUTY B/TT M F Poon · K L Man | M F Poon | K L Man | 12 | 47.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 9 | 10 | FORMULA EXCEL TT1 M L Yeung · C Fownes | M L Yeung | C Fownes | 8 | 135.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 10 | 1 | CASA DE FORCA B A Badel · W Y So | A Badel | W Y So | 10 | 15.0 | 9 |
| 11 | 12 | U W BROTHER B H N Wong · Y S Tsui | H N Wong | Y S Tsui | 6 | 116.0 | 9-1/2 |
| 12 | 9 | GENERAL TRUMP TT R Maia · T P Yung | R Maia | T P Yung | 3 | 49.0 | 10-3/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | MASTER EIGHT | 28.4% | 3.52 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | PACKING AWARD | 19.7% | 5.07 | 3 |
| 3 | 4 | PARTY GENIUS | 14.1% | 7.09 | 5 |
| 4 | 7 | FIRE BALL | 13.0% | 7.71 | 2 |
| 5 | 1 | CASA DE FORCA | 10.0% | 10.01 | 10 |
| 6 | 2 | HARDLY SWEARS | 4.0% | 25.23 | 6 |
| 7 | 9 | GENERAL TRUMP | 3.9% | 25.34 | 12 |
| 8 | 3 | GOOD BEAUTY | 2.7% | 37.16 | 8 |
| 9 | 11 | DESTINE JEWELLERY | 1.8% | 55.50 | 4 |
| 10 | 8 | VICTORY MORE | 0.9% | 113.12 | 7 |
| 11 | 10 | FORMULA EXCEL | 0.8% | 128.86 | 9 |
| 12 | 12 | U W BROTHER | 0.8% | 130.80 | 11 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
6 17
PLACE
5 20
6 10.5
7 22
QUINELLA
6,7 70.5
QUINELLA PLACE
5,6 27
5,7 62
6,7 29
FORECAST
6,7 97
TIERCE
6,7,5 385
TRIO
5,6,7 113
FIRST 4
5,6,7,11 867
QUARTET
6,7,5,11 8,065
全部彩池（另 2 項）
2ND DOUBLE
1/6 58
1/7 36
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 13.5
A3 —