沙田 · 2021-05-16
第 4場
2021-05-16沙田第4場，Class 4，途程1000米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由K H Chan策騎、C S Shum訓練的UNITED WE STAND勝出，贏出1-1/4。CORRIENTHES獲得亞軍；SPARKLING DOLPHIN獲得季軍。3.5倍大熱門BREEZE OF SPRING跑獲第4名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | UNITED WE STAND B/TT 0.54.94 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） K H Chan · C S Shum | K H Chan | C S Shum | 4 | 14.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 1 | CORRIENTHES SR A Badel · D E Ferraris | A Badel | D E Ferraris | 9 | 4.4 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 10 | SPARKLING DOLPHIN H T Mo · Y S Tsui | H T Mo | Y S Tsui | 7 | 14.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 4 | 12 | BREEZE OF SPRING V-/TT J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 11 | 3.5 | 3 |
| 5 | 8 | AUGUST MOON B K C Leung · P O'Sullivan | K C Leung | P O'Sullivan | 8 | 12.0 | 4 |
| 6 | 6 | THIS IS GUTS C Schofield · D A Hayes | C Schofield | D A Hayes | 2 | 7.5 | 5-3/4 |
| 7 | 3 | AHEAD A HEAD B1 R Maia · T P Yung | R Maia | T P Yung | 6 | 70.0 | 7 |
| 8 | 7 | TREASURE OF FIELD Z Purton · K H Ting | Z Purton | K H Ting | 10 | 9.2 | 7-1/2 |
| 9 | 14 | SUNNY AND GOLD H/TT M F Poon · C H Yip | M F Poon | C H Yip | 14 | 10.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 10 | 5 | KABI SMART H/TT H Bentley · W Y So | H Bentley | W Y So | 13 | 62.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 11 | 9 | XPONENTIAL CP/SR C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 3 | 10.0 | 11 |
| 12 | 13 | JUMBO ENGINE B2 M L Yeung · R Gibson | M L Yeung | R Gibson | 12 | 171.0 | 15 |
| 13 | 11 | FARM BUMPER B C Y Ho · K L Man | C Y Ho | K L Man | 1 | 75.0 | 16-1/4 |
| 14 | 4 | INTENTION H H W Lai · L Ho | H W Lai | L Ho | 5 | 215.0 | 16-3/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | TREASURE OF FIELD | 25.2% | 3.97 | 8 |
| 2 | 2 | UNITED WE STAND | 11.6% | 8.63 | 1 |
| 3 | 12 | BREEZE OF SPRING | 9.8% | 10.26 | 4 |
| 4 | 6 | THIS IS GUTS | 8.5% | 11.78 | 6 |
| 5 | 10 | SPARKLING DOLPHIN | 8.3% | 12.03 | 3 |
| 6 | 1 | CORRIENTHES | 6.8% | 14.77 | 2 |
| 7 | 14 | SUNNY AND GOLD | 5.8% | 17.19 | 9 |
| 8 | 9 | XPONENTIAL | 5.4% | 18.41 | 11 |
| 9 | 8 | AUGUST MOON | 4.8% | 21.04 | 5 |
| 10 | 11 | FARM BUMPER | 4.5% | 22.32 | 13 |
| 11 | 3 | AHEAD A HEAD | 4.1% | 24.58 | 7 |
| 12 | 5 | KABI SMART | 3.8% | 26.24 | 10 |
| 13 | 13 | JUMBO ENGINE | 1.0% | 98.72 | 12 |
| 14 | 4 | INTENTION | 0.5% | 183.42 | 14 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
2 142
PLACE
1 20.5
2 32.5
10 40.5
QUINELLA
1,2 275.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 99.5
1,10 153
2,10 174.5
FORECAST
2,1 738
TIERCE
2,1,10 5,842
TRIO
1,2,10 785
FIRST 4
1,2,10,12 1,081
QUARTET
2,1,10,12 32,067
全部彩池（另 3 項）
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
5,6,7/1,2,10 10,554
3 PICK 1
A3 26.5
A1 —
A2 —
3RD DOUBLE
6/1 16.5
6/2 249.5