沙田 · 2021-05-16
第 6場
2021-05-16沙田第6場，Class 4，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由J Moreira策騎、A S Cruz訓練的MERCURIAL勝出，贏出1/2。GOOD BUDDY獲得亞軍；GLUCK RACER獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。3.5倍大熱門GLUCK RACER跑獲第3名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | MERCURIAL 後段發力 H/TT 1.21.55 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） J Moreira · A S Cruz | J Moreira | A S Cruz | 6 | 11.0 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 9 | GOOD BUDDY 後段發力 Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 1 | 3.7 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 2 | GLUCK RACER 後段發力 A Badel · K L Man | A Badel | K L Man | 5 | 3.5 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 6 | OSCAR GLORY CP K Teetan · F C Lor | K Teetan | F C Lor | 9 | 9.0 | 3/4 |
| 5 | 12 | SHADOW BREAKER 後段發力 SR/TT C Schofield · K H Ting | C Schofield | K H Ting | 2 | 15.0 | 2 |
| 6 | 4 | CITY LEGEND 後段發力 B/TT R Maia · T P Yung | R Maia | T P Yung | 11 | 17.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 14 | DAZZLING FEELING B/TT V Borges · D E Ferraris | V Borges | D E Ferraris | 13 | 83.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 8 | DARCI JOY 後段發力 H1 K C Leung · P F Yiu | K C Leung | P F Yiu | 14 | 10.0 | 4 |
| 9 | 13 | PERFECT TO PLAY 後段發力 XB C Wong · C Fownes | C Wong | C Fownes | 7 | 78.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 10 | 10 | OFF THE REEL 後段發力 P1/XB1 H Bentley · P F Yiu | H Bentley | P F Yiu | 12 | 21.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 11 | 7 | MORE THAN A HORSE B/SR C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 8 | 8.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 12 | 1 | TELECOM CHEETAH P-/TT M F Poon · C H Yip | M F Poon | C H Yip | 10 | 48.0 | 9-1/4 |
| 13 | 5 | FAITHFUL TRINITY H/TT A Hamelin · W Y So | A Hamelin | W Y So | 3 | 43.0 | 10-1/4 |
| 14 | 11 | MAGIC BONUS 早段領放 H- M L Yeung · D A Hayes | M L Yeung | D A Hayes | 4 | 115.0 | 12 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | OSCAR GLORY | 19.5% | 5.14 | 4 |
| 2 | 2 | GLUCK RACER | 18.8% | 5.32 | 3 |
| 3 | 9 | GOOD BUDDY | 14.4% | 6.93 | 2 |
| 4 | 3 | MERCURIAL | 11.1% | 9.04 | 1 |
| 5 | 4 | CITY LEGEND | 5.8% | 17.24 | 6 |
| 6 | 7 | MORE THAN A HORSE | 5.7% | 17.40 | 11 |
| 7 | 8 | DARCI JOY | 4.9% | 20.26 | 8 |
| 8 | 5 | FAITHFUL TRINITY | 4.8% | 20.78 | 13 |
| 9 | 12 | SHADOW BREAKER | 4.4% | 22.70 | 5 |
| 10 | 10 | OFF THE REEL | 3.3% | 30.10 | 10 |
| 11 | 13 | PERFECT TO PLAY | 2.9% | 34.60 | 9 |
| 12 | 14 | DAZZLING FEELING | 2.2% | 44.72 | 7 |
| 13 | 1 | TELECOM CHEETAH | 1.5% | 67.18 | 12 |
| 14 | 11 | MAGIC BONUS | 0.6% | 165.85 | 14 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
3 114
PLACE
2 16.5
3 30.5
9 15.5
QUINELLA
3,9 229.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 66.5
2,9 33.5
3,9 82.5
FORECAST
3,9 547
TIERCE
3,9,2 1,543
TRIO
2,3,9 174
FIRST 4
2,3,6,9 183
QUARTET
3,9,2,6 6,326
全部彩池（另 4 項）
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 —
A2 31
5TH DOUBLE
1/3 3,988
1/9 368.5
TRIPLE TRIO
1,2,10/1,2,13/2,3,9 35,979,512
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
1,2,10/1,2,13/Any Combination 250,809