Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2021-05-16

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2021-05-16 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. FANTASTIC SHOW, ridden by H T Mo and trained by Y S Tsui, won by 1, with GALAXY EMPEROR second and V CHEVALIERS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.2 favourite SUPER MISSION finished 9th.

Result

Official · 1.21.55
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 FANTASTIC SHOW Closed strongly B 1.21.55 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H T Mo · Y S Tsui 4 45.0 1
2 13 GALAXY EMPEROR Closed strongly B/H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 6 6.0 1
3 2 V CHEVALIERS Closed strongly H/TT A Badel · K L Man 1 18.0 1-1/2
4 5 ALL YOU KNOW Closed strongly B/TT A Hamelin · R Gibson 13 69.0 1-3/4
5 11 GOLDEN BOLT Led early XB/SR1 C L Chau · D J Whyte 11 39.0 2
6 4 CHARIZARD B/TT H Bentley · D E Ferraris 5 18.0 2-1/4
7 9 SAM'S LOVE Closed strongly TT Z Purton · C H Yip 10 12.0 3-1/2
8 6 BRANDING POWER PC-/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 2 10.0 4
9 3 SUPER MISSION CP/H K C Leung · P F Yiu 7 2.2 4-1/4
10 7 GREEN ENVY V/TT J Moreira · C Fownes 14 7.6 6-1/4
11 8 TOWARDS SUCCESS H/TT1 H W Lai · W Y So 8 240.0 7-3/4
12 10 SUPER FLAMES M L Yeung · L Ho 9 240.0 8-3/4
13 14 APEX TOP B M F Poon · A T Millard 3 9.8 9-1/2
14 12 INCREDIBLE B/TT R Maia · T P Yung 12 133.0 29-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FANTASTIC SHOW2. GALAXY EMPEROR+1L3. V CHEVALIERS+1.5L4. ALL YOU KNOW+1.75L5. GOLDEN BOLT+2L6. CHARIZARD+2.25L7. SAM'S LOVE+3.5L8. BRANDING POWER+4L9. SUPER MISSION+4.25L10. GREEN ENVY+6.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick GALAXY EMPEROR (21.6%) finished 2nd — the winner FANTASTIC SHOW was rated #12. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 13 GALAXY EMPEROR 21.6% 4.62 2
2 7 GREEN ENVY 16.8% 5.96 10
3 3 SUPER MISSION 11.6% 8.64 9
4 2 V CHEVALIERS 9.9% 10.10 3
5 9 SAM'S LOVE 8.6% 11.66 7
6 6 BRANDING POWER 8.4% 11.90 8
7 14 APEX TOP 6.1% 16.43 13
8 4 CHARIZARD 5.9% 16.97 6
9 5 ALL YOU KNOW 3.7% 27.08 4
10 11 GOLDEN BOLT 3.2% 30.98 5
11 12 INCREDIBLE 1.8% 55.90 14
12 1 FANTASTIC SHOW 1.3% 77.60 1
13 8 TOWARDS SUCCESS 0.6% 171.35 11
14 10 SUPER FLAMES 0.6% 174.13 12
GALAXY EMPERORGREEN ENVYSUPER MISSIONV CHEVALIERSSAM'S LOVEBRANDING POWERAPEX TOPCHARIZARDALL YOU KNOWGOLDEN BOLTINCREDIBLEFANTASTIC SHOW — wonTOWARDS SUCCESSSUPER FLAMES

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 452

PLACE

1 104

2 44.5

13 19

QUINELLA

1,13 1,853.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 726

1,13 485.5

2,13 142.5

FORECAST

1,13 4,804

TIERCE

1,13,2 52,188

TRIO

1,2,13 7,465

FIRST 4

1,2,5,13 59,820

QUARTET

1,13,2,5 2,691,897

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 34.5

A1

A2

4TH DOUBLE

2/1 3,830.5

2/13 207.5