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Sha Tin · 2021-05-30

Race 3

Group 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1600m Course B 7 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2021-05-30 was Group 3 over 1600m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. SKY DARCI, ridden by J Moreira and trained by C Fownes, won by SH, with HEALTHY HAPPY second and NOT USUAL TALENT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.5 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.33.45
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 SKY DARCI Closed strongly TT 1.33.45 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · C Fownes 3 2.5 SH
2 5 HEALTHY HAPPY V/TT A Badel · F C Lor 7 5.8 SH
3 7 NOT USUAL TALENT Closed strongly TT M Chadwick · T P Yung 5 11.0 1-3/4
4 3 CHAMPION'S WAY Closed strongly P/TT A Hamelin · J Size 1 22.0 1-3/4
5 4 FAST MOST FURIOUS M F Poon · D J Hall 4 25.0 2-1/2
6 1 KA YING STAR Led early V/TT Z Purton · A S Cruz 2 7.6 4-3/4
7 2 MORE THAN THIS K Teetan · C S Shum 6 2.9 6-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SKY DARCI—2. HEALTHY HAPPY+0.1L3. NOT USUAL TALENT+1.75L4. CHAMPION'S WAY+1.75L5. FAST MOST FURIOUS+2.5L6. KA YING STAR+4.75L7. MORE THAN THIS+6.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick SKY DARCI (48.8%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 SKY DARCI 48.8% 2.05 1
2 1 KA YING STAR 16.6% 6.01 6
3 5 HEALTHY HAPPY 11.7% 8.58 2
4 2 MORE THAN THIS 7.7% 12.96 7
5 3 CHAMPION'S WAY 6.8% 14.66 4
6 4 FAST MOST FURIOUS 5.2% 19.23 5
7 7 NOT USUAL TALENT 3.1% 31.81 3
SKY DARCI — wonKA YING STARHEALTHY HAPPYMORE THAN THISCHAMPION'S WAYFAST MOST FURIOUSNOT USUAL TALENT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 25

PLACE

5 20

6 13.5

7 29.5

QUINELLA

5,6 63

QUINELLA PLACE

5,6 30.5

5,7 53.5

6,7 35.5

FORECAST

6,5 133

TIERCE

6,5,7 490

TRIO

5,6,7 127

FIRST 4

3,5,6,7 345

QUARTET

6,5,7,3 3,374

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

12/5 101

12/6 350

3 PICK 1

A1 13.5

A2 —

A3 —

← Race 2 Race 4 → This meeting Draw bias · Sha Tin 1600m Need this as data? Full results archive from $99