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Sha Tin · 2021-05-30

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course B 14 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2021-05-30 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. DUBLIN STAR, ridden by K Teetan and trained by K L Man, won by 1, with WAR WEAPON second and ELIGERE third. The 2.3 favourite MIGHTY VALOR finished 10th.

Result

Official · 1.08.29
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 DUBLIN STAR B/TT 1.08.29 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · K L Man 7 6.1 1
2 7 WAR WEAPON TT1 C Y Ho · C Fownes 12 11.0 1
3 9 ELIGERE B H N Wong · Y S Tsui 5 31.0 1
4 6 ALL FOR SOUTH B Z Purton · F C Lor 4 8.5 1
5 1 REGENCY BO BO B/TT M F Poon · C S Shum 9 13.0 1-1/4
6 8 ELON E/P A Hamelin · J Size 3 23.0 1-3/4
7 4 QUADRUPLE DOUBLE TT K C Leung · D J Hall 2 31.0 2
8 10 FIRST RESPONDER B C L Chau · D J Whyte 1 7.9 2-1/2
9 13 AURORA PEGASUS TT A Badel · C Fownes 6 29.0 2-1/2
10 3 MIGHTY VALOR J Moreira · P F Yiu 8 2.3 4-3/4
11 12 GOD OF DRAGON H/XB/TT H T Mo · A S Cruz 14 113.0 5-1/4
12 5 OUR CREED T Piccone · K H Ting 13 77.0 9
13 2 ELITE PATCH B/H/TT N Callan · K W Lui 10 86.0 9-1/4
14 14 SOARING TOWER M L Yeung · W Y So 11 29.0 10

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. DUBLIN STAR2. WAR WEAPON+1L3. ELIGERE+1L4. ALL FOR SOUTH+1L5. REGENCY BO BO+1.25L6. ELON+1.75L7. QUADRUPLE DOUBLE+2L8. FIRST RESPONDER+2.5L9. AURORA PEGASUS+2.5L10. MIGHTY VALOR+4.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick MIGHTY VALOR (19.6%) finished 10th — the winner DUBLIN STAR was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 MIGHTY VALOR 19.6% 5.11 10
2 6 ALL FOR SOUTH 15.7% 6.37 4
3 10 FIRST RESPONDER 12.6% 7.91 8
4 1 REGENCY BO BO 10.5% 9.50 5
5 7 WAR WEAPON 9.7% 10.26 2
6 11 DUBLIN STAR 6.5% 15.44 1
7 9 ELIGERE 6.5% 15.45 3
8 13 AURORA PEGASUS 5.5% 18.13 9
9 12 GOD OF DRAGON 3.6% 28.11 11
10 8 ELON 2.8% 36.19 6
11 2 ELITE PATCH 2.6% 37.78 13
12 14 SOARING TOWER 1.8% 54.91 14
13 5 OUR CREED 1.5% 65.97 12
14 4 QUADRUPLE DOUBLE 1.0% 95.59 7
MIGHTY VALORALL FOR SOUTHFIRST RESPONDERREGENCY BO BOWAR WEAPONDUBLIN STAR — wonELIGEREAURORA PEGASUSGOD OF DRAGONELONELITE PATCHSOARING TOWEROUR CREEDQUADRUPLE DOUBLE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 61

PLACE

7 38

9 64.5

11 18.5

QUINELLA

7,11 281

QUINELLA PLACE

7,9 384.5

7,11 101

9,11 179.5

FORECAST

11,7 649

TIERCE

11,7,9 8,411

TRIO

7,9,11 2,245

FIRST 4

6,7,9,11 3,040

QUARTET

11,7,9,6 58,462

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 16.5

A3

A2

8TH DOUBLE

14/7 1,131.5

14/11 5,646.5