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Sha Tin · 2021-05-30

Race 7

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course B 13 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2021-05-30 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. SPEEDY MOUSE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by F C Lor, won by 1-1/2, with WAR OF COURAGE second and STORM WARNINGS third. Victory came as the 3.4 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.08.70
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 SPEEDY MOUSE 1.08.70 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · F C Lor 6 3.4 1-1/2
2 6 WAR OF COURAGE B M Chadwick · K L Man 8 5.2 1-1/2
3 2 STORM WARNINGS CP/SR/TT C L Chau · D J Whyte 9 6.4 1-3/4
4 11 PLEASANT ENDEAVOR K C Leung · P F Yiu 4 8.6 2-3/4
5 13 PEGASUS GLORY B H T Mo · Y S Tsui 10 12.0 4-1/4
6 10 BIZ POWER B M F Poon · P O'Sullivan 11 17.0 5
7 12 STRIVE FOR GLORY TT C Wong · F C Lor 5 32.0 5
8 4 GOOD HEALTH B Shinn · D A Hayes 13 71.0 5
9 3 BABY B H N Wong · K H Ting 7 97.0 6-1/4
10 8 DECISIVE TWELVE TT A Badel · W Y So 12 5.4 6-1/2
11 1 ROYAL PRIDE B1/TT1 C Y Ho · C Fownes 1 17.0 8-1/2
12 5 OUR CLASS ACT H W Lai · Y S Tsui 3 271.0 12-1/2
13 7 VITRALITE XB A Hamelin · K W Lui 2 80.0 14

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SPEEDY MOUSE2. WAR OF COURAGE+1.5L3. STORM WARNINGS+1.75L4. PLEASANT ENDEAVOR+2.75L5. PEGASUS GLORY+4.25L6. BIZ POWER+5L7. STRIVE FOR GLORY+5L8. GOOD HEALTH+5L9. BABY+6.25L10. DECISIVE TWELVE+6.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick SPEEDY MOUSE (25.4%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 SPEEDY MOUSE 25.4% 3.94 1
2 6 WAR OF COURAGE 15.9% 6.31 2
3 8 DECISIVE TWELVE 14.8% 6.77 10
4 2 STORM WARNINGS 12.8% 7.83 3
5 11 PLEASANT ENDEAVOR 8.0% 12.45 4
6 13 PEGASUS GLORY 6.6% 15.12 5
7 10 BIZ POWER 4.3% 23.10 6
8 12 STRIVE FOR GLORY 3.5% 28.87 7
9 1 ROYAL PRIDE 3.4% 29.63 11
10 4 GOOD HEALTH 2.3% 42.97 8
11 3 BABY 1.7% 59.07 9
12 7 VITRALITE 1.0% 102.17 13
13 5 OUR CLASS ACT 0.4% 239.69 12
SPEEDY MOUSE — wonWAR OF COURAGEDECISIVE TWELVESTORM WARNINGSPLEASANT ENDEAVORPEGASUS GLORYBIZ POWERSTRIVE FOR GLORYROYAL PRIDEGOOD HEALTHBABYVITRALITEOUR CLASS ACT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 34

PLACE

2 23.5

6 15.5

9 17.5

QUINELLA

6,9 123

QUINELLA PLACE

2,6 54

2,9 55

6,9 41.5

FORECAST

9,6 239

TIERCE

9,6,2 940

TRIO

2,6,9 177

FIRST 4

2,6,9,11 319

QUARTET

9,6,2,11 4,742

All pools (3 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

3,8,9/2,6,9 525,197

3 PICK 1

A2

A3

A1 22

6TH DOUBLE

9/6 830.5

9/9 1,930