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Sha Tin · 2021-05-30

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course B 14 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2021-05-30 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. GREEN ENVY, ridden by J Moreira and trained by C Fownes, won by 1/2, with MIGHTY POWER second and THUNDERSTRIKE third. The winner led throughout. The 2.3 favourite SEASONS BLISS finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.21.89
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 GREEN ENVY Wire to wire V/TT 1.21.89 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · C Fownes 5 8.5 1/2
2 8 MIGHTY POWER Closed strongly BO B Shinn · D A Hayes 4 7.9 1/2
3 6 THUNDERSTRIKE Closed strongly XB-/H C L Chau · D J Whyte 3 27.0 1-1/4
4 3 SEASONS BLISS Closed strongly C Y Ho · K H Ting 8 2.3 1-1/2
5 14 WINWIN THIRTYTHREE Closed strongly B A Hamelin · P F Yiu 6 48.0 1-1/2
6 2 ARMOR STAR V Z Purton · F C Lor 1 8.2 1-1/2
7 11 BEST FOR YOU B M Chadwick · Y S Tsui 2 13.0 1-3/4
8 12 GOLDEN FOUR Closed strongly P T Piccone · C W Chang 7 21.0 3-1/4
9 9 CHARIZARD Closed strongly B/TT N Callan · D E Ferraris 12 12.0 3-1/2
10 7 LEGEND GOES Closed strongly B K Teetan · P O'Sullivan 9 23.0 4
11 4 GLENEALY GENERALS M F Poon · C H Yip 11 43.0 4-1/2
12 13 THIS IS CHARISMA Closed strongly B/H K C Leung · D J Hall 14 148.0 5-1/2
13 1 CASA DE FORCA B R Maia · W Y So 10 52.0 7-1/4
14 5 STAR OF WUYI B A Badel · K W Lui 13 14.0 13-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GREEN ENVY2. MIGHTY POWER+0.5L3. THUNDERSTRIKE+1.25L4. SEASONS BLISS+1.5L5. WINWIN THIRTYTHREE+1.5L6. ARMOR STAR+1.5L7. BEST FOR YOU+1.75L8. GOLDEN FOUR+3.25L9. CHARIZARD+3.5L10. LEGEND GOES+4L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick SEASONS BLISS (24.2%) finished 4th — the winner GREEN ENVY was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 SEASONS BLISS 24.2% 4.13 4
2 10 GREEN ENVY 22.4% 4.46 1
3 5 STAR OF WUYI 10.2% 9.79 14
4 2 ARMOR STAR 5.5% 18.23 6
5 11 BEST FOR YOU 5.5% 18.31 7
6 6 THUNDERSTRIKE 5.4% 18.60 3
7 14 WINWIN THIRTYTHREE 4.9% 20.23 5
8 7 LEGEND GOES 4.4% 22.81 10
9 4 GLENEALY GENERALS 4.2% 23.61 11
10 1 CASA DE FORCA 4.1% 24.16 13
11 8 MIGHTY POWER 2.8% 36.20 2
12 13 THIS IS CHARISMA 2.6% 37.92 12
13 9 CHARIZARD 2.3% 43.38 9
14 12 GOLDEN FOUR 1.4% 69.53 8
SEASONS BLISSGREEN ENVY — wonSTAR OF WUYIARMOR STARBEST FOR YOUTHUNDERSTRIKEWINWIN THIRTYTHREELEGEND GOESGLENEALY GENERALSCASA DE FORCAMIGHTY POWERTHIS IS CHARISMACHARIZARDGOLDEN FOUR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 85

PLACE

6 71

8 20.5

10 21.5

QUINELLA

8,10 249.5

QUINELLA PLACE

6,8 272.5

6,10 267

8,10 80

FORECAST

10,8 652

TIERCE

10,8,6 9,704

TRIO

6,8,10 2,205

FIRST 4

3,6,8,10 1,284

QUARTET

10,8,6,3 43,029

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

5,6,7/6,8,10 65,629

3 PICK 1

A1

A2 31.5

A3

3RD DOUBLE

6/8 50

6/10 319