沙田 · 2021-05-30
第 4場
2021-05-30沙田第4場，Class 4，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由J Moreira策騎、C Fownes訓練的GREEN ENVY勝出，贏出1/2。MIGHTY POWER獲得亞軍；THUNDERSTRIKE獲得季軍。頭馬帶放到底。2.3倍大熱門SEASONS BLISS跑獲第4名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | GREEN ENVY 一路領先 V/TT 1.21.89 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 5 | 8.5 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 8 | MIGHTY POWER 後段發力 BO B Shinn · D A Hayes | B Shinn | D A Hayes | 4 | 7.9 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 6 | THUNDERSTRIKE 後段發力 XB-/H C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 3 | 27.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 3 | SEASONS BLISS 後段發力 C Y Ho · K H Ting | C Y Ho | K H Ting | 8 | 2.3 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 14 | WINWIN THIRTYTHREE 後段發力 B A Hamelin · P F Yiu | A Hamelin | P F Yiu | 6 | 48.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 6 | 2 | ARMOR STAR V Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | 1 | 8.2 | 1-1/2 |
| 7 | 11 | BEST FOR YOU B M Chadwick · Y S Tsui | M Chadwick | Y S Tsui | 2 | 13.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 8 | 12 | GOLDEN FOUR 後段發力 P T Piccone · C W Chang | T Piccone | C W Chang | 7 | 21.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 9 | 9 | CHARIZARD 後段發力 B/TT N Callan · D E Ferraris | N Callan | D E Ferraris | 12 | 12.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 10 | 7 | LEGEND GOES 後段發力 B K Teetan · P O'Sullivan | K Teetan | P O'Sullivan | 9 | 23.0 | 4 |
| 11 | 4 | GLENEALY GENERALS M F Poon · C H Yip | M F Poon | C H Yip | 11 | 43.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 12 | 13 | THIS IS CHARISMA 後段發力 B/H K C Leung · D J Hall | K C Leung | D J Hall | 14 | 148.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 13 | 1 | CASA DE FORCA B R Maia · W Y So | R Maia | W Y So | 10 | 52.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 14 | 5 | STAR OF WUYI B A Badel · K W Lui | A Badel | K W Lui | 13 | 14.0 | 13-1/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | SEASONS BLISS | 24.2% | 4.13 | 4 |
| 2 | 10 | GREEN ENVY | 22.4% | 4.46 | 1 |
| 3 | 5 | STAR OF WUYI | 10.2% | 9.79 | 14 |
| 4 | 2 | ARMOR STAR | 5.5% | 18.23 | 6 |
| 5 | 11 | BEST FOR YOU | 5.5% | 18.31 | 7 |
| 6 | 6 | THUNDERSTRIKE | 5.4% | 18.60 | 3 |
| 7 | 14 | WINWIN THIRTYTHREE | 4.9% | 20.23 | 5 |
| 8 | 7 | LEGEND GOES | 4.4% | 22.81 | 10 |
| 9 | 4 | GLENEALY GENERALS | 4.2% | 23.61 | 11 |
| 10 | 1 | CASA DE FORCA | 4.1% | 24.16 | 13 |
| 11 | 8 | MIGHTY POWER | 2.8% | 36.20 | 2 |
| 12 | 13 | THIS IS CHARISMA | 2.6% | 37.92 | 12 |
| 13 | 9 | CHARIZARD | 2.3% | 43.38 | 9 |
| 14 | 12 | GOLDEN FOUR | 1.4% | 69.53 | 8 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
10 85
PLACE
6 71
8 20.5
10 21.5
QUINELLA
8,10 249.5
QUINELLA PLACE
6,8 272.5
6,10 267
8,10 80
FORECAST
10,8 652
TIERCE
10,8,6 9,704
TRIO
6,8,10 2,205
FIRST 4
3,6,8,10 1,284
QUARTET
10,8,6,3 43,029
全部彩池（另 3 項）
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
5,6,7/6,8,10 65,629
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 31.5
A3 —
3RD DOUBLE
6/8 50
6/10 319