沙田 · 2021-05-30
第 6場
2021-05-30沙田第6場，Class 3，途程2000米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由M F Poon策騎、K L Man訓練的ENZEMBLE勝出，贏出1/2。ABOVE獲得亞軍；VINCY獲得季軍。頭馬帶放到底。2.9倍大熱門CALIFORNIA TEN跑獲第6名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | ENZEMBLE 一路領先 H/XB 2.00.67 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） M F Poon · K L Man | M F Poon | K L Man | 5 | 58.0 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 8 | ABOVE 後段發力 B/TT A Hamelin · A T Millard | A Hamelin | A T Millard | 11 | 20.0 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 3 | VINCY CP/SR/TT H Bentley · D J Whyte | H Bentley | D J Whyte | 1 | 13.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 11 | NATURAL STORM 後段發力 B M L Yeung · P F Yiu | M L Yeung | P F Yiu | 13 | 56.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 4 | 13 | MURRAY'S PARTNERS 後段發力 V C Wong · C H Yip | C Wong | C H Yip | 10 | 54.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 4 | CALIFORNIA TEN 後段發力 CP/TT J Moreira · A S Cruz | J Moreira | A S Cruz | 7 | 2.9 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 1 | CELESTIAL POWER 後段發力 V B Shinn · F C Lor | B Shinn | F C Lor | 14 | 18.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 2 | RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE XB K Teetan · C W Chang | K Teetan | C W Chang | 3 | 10.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 10 | DYNAMIC EAGLE A Badel · C S Shum | A Badel | C S Shum | 4 | 12.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 10 | 6 | SO WE JOY TT Z Purton · D A Hayes | Z Purton | D A Hayes | 9 | 5.8 | 5-3/4 |
| 11 | 12 | PAKISTAN FRIEND TT T Piccone · W Y So | T Piccone | W Y So | 8 | 11.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 12 | 7 | BLASTOISE CP- K C Leung · D E Ferraris | K C Leung | D E Ferraris | 12 | 22.0 | 9-3/4 |
| 13 | 14 | FLYING MIGHTY TT1 M Chadwick · D J Hall | M Chadwick | D J Hall | 2 | 12.0 | 15 |
| 14 | 5 | PERFECT TO GREAT V N Callan · C Fownes | N Callan | C Fownes | 6 | 13.0 | 15 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | CALIFORNIA TEN | 27.1% | 3.69 | 6 |
| 2 | 6 | SO WE JOY | 16.0% | 6.23 | 10 |
| 3 | 1 | CELESTIAL POWER | 9.3% | 10.80 | 7 |
| 4 | 3 | VINCY | 8.3% | 12.04 | 3 |
| 5 | 10 | DYNAMIC EAGLE | 6.6% | 15.13 | 9 |
| 6 | 5 | PERFECT TO GREAT | 5.9% | 16.82 | 14 |
| 7 | 8 | ABOVE | 5.2% | 19.27 | 2 |
| 8 | 2 | RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE | 4.3% | 23.03 | 8 |
| 9 | 7 | BLASTOISE | 4.2% | 23.68 | 12 |
| 10 | 14 | FLYING MIGHTY | 4.1% | 24.28 | 13 |
| 11 | 12 | PAKISTAN FRIEND | 3.9% | 25.38 | 11 |
| 12 | 13 | MURRAY'S PARTNERS | 2.0% | 50.59 | 4 |
| 13 | 9 | ENZEMBLE | 1.5% | 65.95 | 1 |
| 14 | 11 | NATURAL STORM | 1.4% | 69.56 | 4 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
9 584.5
PLACE
3 38.5
8 57
9 142
QUINELLA
8,9 4,041
QUINELLA PLACE
3,8 271.5
3,9 709.5
8,9 1,085
FORECAST
9,8 4,130
TIERCE
9,8,3 81,171
TRIO
3,8,9 9,972
FIRST 4
3,8,9,11 32,577
3,8,9,13 36,492
QUARTET
9,8,3,11 726,982
9,8,3,13 985,292
全部彩池（另 3 項）
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 —
A3 17.5
5TH DOUBLE
4/8 266.5
4/9 3,359
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
6,8,10/4,5,12/Any Combination 30,823