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Happy Valley · 2021-06-02

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD 1000m Course A 12 runners

Result

Official · 0.57.11
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 VALIANT ELEGANCE B/TT 0.57.11 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · D J Whyte 12 13.0 2-1/4
2 0 CHUNGHWA JINGSHEN V-/B1 K Teetan · L Ho 3 6.2 2-1/4
3 0 FLYING MONKEY BO/TT A Badel · T P Yung 1 5.9 3-1/2
4 0 ARDENODE TT B Shinn · D J Hall 4 8.3 4-1/4
5 0 TELECOM MISSILE B-/TT1 J Moreira · C Fownes 7 3.0 4-1/2
6 0 SEVENTH SEA SR H W Lai · D E Ferraris 5 35.0 5-1/4
7 0 SCENIC SWEETIE TT N Callan · Y S Tsui 6 13.0 5-1/4
8 0 WINNER'S HEART Z Purton · F C Lor 2 6.5 5-1/2
9 0 BOND A STAR TT K C Leung · C H Yip 8 41.0 5-3/4
10 0 WINNING WARRIOR B M F Poon · K L Man 10 22.0 7
11 0 SEA MONARCH H/V/TT M L Yeung · W Y So 11 88.0 7-1/2
12 0 DRAGON IN FIELD B1/TT1 H N Wong · K H Ting 9 83.0 14-1/2

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2021-06-02 was Class 5 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. VALIANT ELEGANCE, ridden by C L Chau and trained by D J Whyte, won by 2-1/4, with CHUNGHWA JINGSHEN second and FLYING MONKEY third. The 3.0 favourite TELECOM MISSILE finished 5th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. VALIANT ELEGANCE—2. CHUNGHWA JINGSHEN+2.25L3. FLYING MONKEY+3.5L4. ARDENODE+4.25L5. TELECOM MISSILE+4.5L6. SEVENTH SEA+5.25L7. SCENIC SWEETIE+5.25L8. WINNER'S HEART+5.5L9. BOND A STAR+5.75L10. WINNING WARRIOR+7L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick WINNER'S HEART (32.0%) finished 8th — the winner VALIANT ELEGANCE was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 WINNER'S HEART 32.0% 3.13 8
2 0 FLYING MONKEY 13.8% 7.23 3
3 0 ARDENODE 12.2% 8.22 4
4 0 TELECOM MISSILE 11.2% 8.90 5
5 0 VALIANT ELEGANCE 9.4% 10.68 1
6 0 SCENIC SWEETIE 6.7% 14.82 7
7 0 CHUNGHWA JINGSHEN 5.9% 16.83 2
8 0 WINNING WARRIOR 2.9% 34.10 10
9 0 BOND A STAR 2.4% 41.06 9
10 0 SEA MONARCH 1.2% 80.25 11
11 0 SEVENTH SEA 1.2% 82.80 6
12 0 DRAGON IN FIELD 0.9% 107.99 12
WINNER'S HEARTFLYING MONKEYARDENODETELECOM MISSILEVALIANT ELEGANCE — wonSCENIC SWEETIECHUNGHWA JINGSHENWINNING WARRIORBOND A STARSEA MONARCHSEVENTH SEADRAGON IN FIELD

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 132

PLACE

1 32.5

9 21

11 18.5

QUINELLA

1,9 441.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,9 137

1,11 87

9,11 61.5

FORECAST

1,9 847

TIERCE

1,9,11 4,388

TRIO

1,9,11 677

FIRST 4

1,8,9,11 717

QUARTET

1,9,11,8 20,772

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 24.5

A3 —

A1 —