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Happy Valley · 2021-06-02

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course A 12 runners

Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2021-06-02 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. HARRIER JET, ridden by Z Purton and trained by P O'Sullivan, won by SH, with FORTUNE CARRIER second and HAPPY GATHERING third. Victory came as the 4.2 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.10.08
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 HARRIER JET B 1.10.08 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · P O'Sullivan 4 4.2 SH
2 8 FORTUNE CARRIER B C Y Ho · C S Shum 6 5.0 SH
3 10 HAPPY GATHERING B A Badel · K L Man 12 16.0 2-1/4
4 12 PAKISTAN ZINDABAD B-/TT M L Yeung · W Y So 3 35.0 2-1/4
5 2 JAZZ STEED B/TT K H Chan · C Fownes 5 6.7 3
6 4 NOBLE DESIRE SR/XB M F Poon · D J Whyte 10 10.0 3-3/4
7 7 LITTLE PLAYER CP C Schofield · D A Hayes 9 14.0 5-1/4
8 11 FANTASTIC FABIO H N Wong · C H Yip 1 37.0 5-1/2
9 3 NOIR RIDER R Maia · T P Yung 2 6.1 8
10 5 BULLISH UNICORN CP/H/TT T Piccone · A S Cruz 8 43.0 10-1/2
11 6 DRAGON KINGDOM H T Mo · Y S Tsui 7 51.0 11-1/4
12 9 FORTUNE HERO B/TT K Teetan · R Gibson 11 6.8 14-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HARRIER JET2. FORTUNE CARRIER+0.1L3. HAPPY GATHERING+2.25L4. PAKISTAN ZINDABAD+2.25L5. JAZZ STEED+3L6. NOBLE DESIRE+3.75L7. LITTLE PLAYER+5.25L8. FANTASTIC FABIO+5.5L9. NOIR RIDER+8L10. BULLISH UNICORN+10.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick NOBLE DESIRE (16.4%) finished 6th — the winner HARRIER JET was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 NOBLE DESIRE 16.4% 6.11 6
2 3 NOIR RIDER 15.2% 6.57 9
3 1 HARRIER JET 15.2% 6.58 1
4 9 FORTUNE HERO 14.4% 6.94 12
5 10 HAPPY GATHERING 10.1% 9.88 3
6 8 FORTUNE CARRIER 8.8% 11.34 2
7 2 JAZZ STEED 7.1% 14.10 5
8 7 LITTLE PLAYER 6.4% 15.62 7
9 11 FANTASTIC FABIO 2.3% 42.86 8
10 6 DRAGON KINGDOM 1.5% 64.84 11
11 12 PAKISTAN ZINDABAD 1.3% 74.96 4
12 5 BULLISH UNICORN 1.1% 87.31 10
NOBLE DESIRENOIR RIDERHARRIER JET — wonFORTUNE HEROHAPPY GATHERINGFORTUNE CARRIERJAZZ STEEDLITTLE PLAYERFANTASTIC FABIODRAGON KINGDOMPAKISTAN ZINDABADBULLISH UNICORN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 42.5

PLACE

1 17

8 18.5

10 47.5

QUINELLA

1,8 100

QUINELLA PLACE

1,8 41.5

1,10 124

8,10 141

FORECAST

1,8 204

TIERCE

1,8,10 2,437

TRIO

1,8,10 510

FIRST 4

1,8,10,12 3,599

QUARTET

1,8,10,12 46,667

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

7,9,10/1,8,10 24,994

3 PICK 1

A3

A1 23

A2

4TH DOUBLE

10/1 248.5

10/8 44.5