Happy Valley · 2021-06-02
Race 8
Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2021-06-02 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. SIMPLY FLUKE, ridden by A Badel and trained by D J Whyte, won by 3/4, with H Z TOURBILLON second and KA YING MASTER third. The 4.0 favourite RHAPSODY finished 12th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | SIMPLY FLUKE B/XB 1.09.56 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · D J Whyte | A Badel | D J Whyte | 2 | 12.0 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 11 | H Z TOURBILLON TT K Teetan · C S Shum | K Teetan | C S Shum | 6 | 4.1 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 1 | KA YING MASTER B-/TT C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 9 | 19.0 | 1 |
| 4 | 2 | KINDA COOL B Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | 8 | 12.0 | 3 |
| 5 | 7 | MR COLOURFUL CP/TT N Callan · A S Cruz | N Callan | A S Cruz | 3 | 8.5 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 8 | SHOUSON B K C Leung · A T Millard | K C Leung | A T Millard | 12 | 52.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 6 | THE MULTIPLIER B Shinn · D A Hayes | B Shinn | D A Hayes | 1 | 35.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 9 | FAMILY FOLKS CP A Hamelin · C W Chang | A Hamelin | C W Chang | 11 | 7.1 | 4-1/4 |
| 9 | 4 | STANLEY PARK B M F Poon · K W Lui | M F Poon | K W Lui | 10 | 11.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 10 | 5 | SKYEY SUPREME B/TT H N Wong · K W Lui | H N Wong | K W Lui | 4 | 81.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 11 | 3 | PERFECT GLORY C Schofield · C Fownes | C Schofield | C Fownes | 5 | 10.0 | 5 |
| 12 | 12 | RHAPSODY J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 7 | 4.0 | 12-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | RHAPSODY | 23.7% | 4.22 | 12 |
| 2 | 9 | FAMILY FOLKS | 14.1% | 7.07 | 8 |
| 3 | 2 | KINDA COOL | 12.4% | 8.08 | 4 |
| 4 | 11 | H Z TOURBILLON | 11.3% | 8.86 | 2 |
| 5 | 1 | KA YING MASTER | 7.8% | 12.85 | 3 |
| 6 | 7 | MR COLOURFUL | 6.7% | 14.89 | 5 |
| 7 | 3 | PERFECT GLORY | 6.0% | 16.70 | 11 |
| 8 | 10 | SIMPLY FLUKE | 5.6% | 17.76 | 1 |
| 9 | 4 | STANLEY PARK | 4.5% | 22.18 | 9 |
| 10 | 5 | SKYEY SUPREME | 3.4% | 29.14 | 10 |
| 11 | 8 | SHOUSON | 2.5% | 40.12 | 6 |
| 12 | 6 | THE MULTIPLIER | 2.0% | 50.74 | 7 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
10 122
PLACE
1 54
10 33
11 17
QUINELLA
10,11 276
QUINELLA PLACE
1,10 290.5
1,11 163
10,11 97
FORECAST
10,11 665
TIERCE
10,11,1 10,406
TRIO
1,10,11 1,747
FIRST 4
1,2,10,11 1,705
QUARTET
10,11,1,2 44,972
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 29.5
A1 —
7TH DOUBLE
9/10 937
9/11 93