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Happy Valley · 2021-06-02

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD 1650m Course A 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.40.12
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 GALLANT CROWN Closed strongly B/TT 1.40.12 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · A T Millard 1 5.6 HD
2 0 EXCEPTIONAL NICE A Badel · W Y So 2 6.8 HD
3 0 TOTAL POWER Closed strongly B C L Chau · D J Hall 4 21.0 N
4 0 HELENE WISDOM STAR Closed strongly H/TT J Moreira · A S Cruz 10 13.0 N
5 0 HALL OF CHAMP Closed strongly TT B Shinn · C Fownes 3 3.6 1-1/2
6 0 BEAUTY FIT Closed strongly E Z Purton · J Size 11 5.6 2-1/4
7 0 GAMEPLAYER TIMES SR/XB T Piccone · D J Whyte 6 12.0 2-1/4
8 0 FARSHAD CP K Teetan · Y S Tsui 9 13.0 3-3/4
9 0 MEGA HEART XB/TT M L Yeung · C W Chang 7 81.0 6
10 0 NABOO STAR B/TT C Y Ho · D A Hayes 5 10.0 7-3/4
11 0 GOLFMAN STAR Led early PC- K C Leung · F C Lor 12 75.0 8-3/4
12 0 NORDIC WARRIOR B A Hamelin · R Gibson 8 31.0 16-1/2

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2021-06-02 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. GALLANT CROWN, ridden by M F Poon and trained by A T Millard, won by HD, with EXCEPTIONAL NICE second and TOTAL POWER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.6 favourite HALL OF CHAMP finished 5th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GALLANT CROWN—2. EXCEPTIONAL NICE+0.2L3. TOTAL POWER+0.05L4. HELENE WISDOM STAR+0.05L5. HALL OF CHAMP+1.5L6. BEAUTY FIT+2.25L7. GAMEPLAYER TIMES+2.25L8. FARSHAD+3.75L9. MEGA HEART+6L10. NABOO STAR+7.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick BEAUTY FIT (16.7%) finished 6th — the winner GALLANT CROWN was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 BEAUTY FIT 16.7% 6.00 6
2 0 EXCEPTIONAL NICE 15.1% 6.63 2
3 0 HALL OF CHAMP 14.8% 6.76 5
4 0 GALLANT CROWN 11.9% 8.42 1
5 0 HELENE WISDOM STAR 11.8% 8.46 4
6 0 TOTAL POWER 7.5% 13.28 3
7 0 GAMEPLAYER TIMES 6.1% 16.47 7
8 0 NABOO STAR 5.2% 19.30 10
9 0 FARSHAD 4.3% 23.39 8
10 0 GOLFMAN STAR 2.6% 39.18 11
11 0 NORDIC WARRIOR 2.5% 39.93 12
12 0 MEGA HEART 1.7% 60.37 9
BEAUTY FITEXCEPTIONAL NICEHALL OF CHAMPGALLANT CROWN — wonHELENE WISDOM STARTOTAL POWERGAMEPLAYER TIMESNABOO STARFARSHADGOLFMAN STARNORDIC WARRIORMEGA HEART

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 56.5

PLACE

8 21.5

9 56

11 19

QUINELLA

8,11 183

QUINELLA PLACE

8,9 154

8,11 65.5

9,11 147.5

FORECAST

11,8 333

TIERCE

11,8,9 2,764

TRIO

8,9,11 917

FIRST 4

3,8,9,11 1,386

QUARTET

11,8,9,3 26,582

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A1 —

A2 22

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

1,10,11/8,9,11 76,897

8TH DOUBLE

10/8 80.5

10/11 620

SIX UP

7,10/1,8/3,10/3,9/10,11/8,11 5,467

10/1/10/9/10/11 2,267,642

1 [A Badel] —

TREBLE

9/10/8 889

9/10/11 5,462