Happy Valley · 2021-06-02
Race 4
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2021-06-02 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. SUN OF MAKFI, ridden by A Badel and trained by D J Hall, won by 2, with ERNEST FEELING second and ON EXCEL STAR third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.8 favourite REGENCY MASTER finished 10th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | SUN OF MAKFI Closed strongly XB 1.40.27 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · D J Hall | A Badel | D J Hall | 3 | 5.3 | 2 |
| 2 | 7 | ERNEST FEELING Closed strongly CP/TT N Callan · R Gibson | N Callan | R Gibson | 5 | 5.6 | 2 |
| 3 | 9 | ON EXCEL STAR Led early XB J Moreira · C H Yip | J Moreira | C H Yip | 7 | 10.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 3 | FLYING SWORD Closed strongly B/TT B Shinn · D A Hayes | B Shinn | D A Hayes | 1 | 6.5 | 4-1/4 |
| 5 | 1 | DREAM WARRIORS Closed strongly CP/H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 11 | 10.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 6 | 4 | ROYAL RACER V K H Chan · C Fownes | K H Chan | C Fownes | 9 | 17.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 7 | 11 | THUNDER STOMP H W Lai · Y S Tsui | H W Lai | Y S Tsui | 8 | 17.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 8 | 5 | SHINING ON H N Wong · K W Lui | H N Wong | K W Lui | 2 | 38.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 9 | 8 | EL VALIENTE Closed strongly B M F Poon · P O'Sullivan | M F Poon | P O'Sullivan | 12 | 16.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 10 | 2 | REGENCY MASTER B/TT Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 4 | 3.8 | 8 |
| 11 | 6 | STAY CHILL CP C Y Ho · W Y So | C Y Ho | W Y So | 10 | 35.0 | 10-3/4 |
| 12 | 12 | STRATHMARTINE B1/TT H T Mo · A T Millard | H T Mo | A T Millard | 6 | 68.0 | 12-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | REGENCY MASTER | 29.3% | 3.41 | 10 |
| 2 | 10 | SUN OF MAKFI | 15.9% | 6.31 | 1 |
| 3 | 9 | ON EXCEL STAR | 10.4% | 9.61 | 3 |
| 4 | 7 | ERNEST FEELING | 9.5% | 10.56 | 2 |
| 5 | 1 | DREAM WARRIORS | 9.1% | 11.01 | 5 |
| 6 | 8 | EL VALIENTE | 6.0% | 16.79 | 9 |
| 7 | 4 | ROYAL RACER | 5.5% | 18.20 | 6 |
| 8 | 6 | STAY CHILL | 4.9% | 20.59 | 11 |
| 9 | 3 | FLYING SWORD | 4.3% | 23.45 | 4 |
| 10 | 11 | THUNDER STOMP | 3.0% | 32.95 | 7 |
| 11 | 5 | SHINING ON | 1.4% | 70.23 | 8 |
| 12 | 12 | STRATHMARTINE | 0.9% | 116.30 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
10 53.5
PLACE
7 21.5
9 36.5
10 20
QUINELLA
7,10 140.5
QUINELLA PLACE
7,9 94
7,10 50.5
9,10 94.5
FORECAST
10,7 310
TIERCE
10,7,9 1,978
TRIO
7,9,10 376
FIRST 4
3,7,9,10 623
QUARTET
10,7,9,3 16,150
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 22.5
A3 —
3RD DOUBLE
11/7 225.5
11/10 916