Sha Tin · 2021-06-06
Race 3
Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2021-06-06 was Class 3 over 1000m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. JOYFUL FORTUNE, ridden by M F Poon and trained by A S Cruz, won by HD, with METRO WARRIOR second and BRILLIANT FORTUNE third. The 2.2 favourite BRILLIANT FORTUNE finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | JOYFUL FORTUNE TT 0.55.26 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · A S Cruz | M F Poon | A S Cruz | 8 | 3.5 | HD |
| 2 | 3 | METRO WARRIOR B Z Purton · D A Hayes | Z Purton | D A Hayes | 3 | 6.7 | HD |
| 3 | 2 | BRILLIANT FORTUNE J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 9 | 2.2 | 2-1/2 |
| 4 | 7 | FLYING HIGH H1/TT1 A Hamelin · W Y So | A Hamelin | W Y So | 1 | 88.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 5 | 1 | GOOD VIEW CLARICO N Callan · C H Yip | N Callan | C H Yip | 4 | 8.2 | 4-1/4 |
| 6 | 8 | SPARKLING KNIGHT M L Yeung · C H Yip | M L Yeung | C H Yip | 6 | 12.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 7 | 9 | FIGHTING STAR XB-/CP1/TT A Badel · D J Whyte | A Badel | D J Whyte | 2 | 25.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 8 | 4 | SPECIAL M B/TT1 K Teetan · J Size | K Teetan | J Size | 5 | 25.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 9 | 6 | UTOPIA LIFE B K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 7 | 31.0 | 7-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | METRO WARRIOR | 31.0% | 3.23 | 2 |
| 2 | 2 | BRILLIANT FORTUNE | 21.0% | 4.76 | 3 |
| 3 | 5 | JOYFUL FORTUNE | 14.5% | 6.88 | 1 |
| 4 | 9 | FIGHTING STAR | 9.9% | 10.06 | 7 |
| 5 | 1 | GOOD VIEW CLARICO | 8.0% | 12.52 | 5 |
| 6 | 4 | SPECIAL M | 6.3% | 15.94 | 8 |
| 7 | 8 | SPARKLING KNIGHT | 4.3% | 23.16 | 6 |
| 8 | 6 | UTOPIA LIFE | 3.4% | 29.66 | 9 |
| 9 | 7 | FLYING HIGH | 1.6% | 62.19 | 4 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 35.5
PLACE
2 11.5
3 16
5 13.5
QUINELLA
3,5 93.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 23
2,5 20.5
3,5 31.5
FORECAST
5,3 186
TIERCE
5,3,2 423
TRIO
2,3,5 49
FIRST 4
2,3,5,7 483
QUARTET
5,3,2,7 10,193
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE
4/3 47.5
4/5 169.5
3 PICK 1
A1 13.5
A3 —
A2 —