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Sha Tin · 2021-06-06

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD (AWT) 1650m 14 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2021-06-06 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. FAIRY FLOSS, ridden by J Moreira and trained by P O'Sullivan, won by N, with SUPER FAST second and LADY FIRST third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.1 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.38.08
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 13 FAIRY FLOSS Closed strongly CP/H 1.38.08 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · P O'Sullivan 14 3.1 N
2 10 SUPER FAST XB A Hamelin · K W Lui 6 8.3 N
3 6 LADY FIRST Closed strongly CP/H/XB/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz 7 6.5 2
4 11 LONDON LUCKYSTAR Closed strongly PC K C Leung · L Ho 10 13.0 2-1/4
5 12 YES WE CAN Closed strongly TT C L Chau · T P Yung 2 10.0 2-3/4
6 4 PIANO SOLO Closed strongly Z Purton · C S Shum 13 13.0 3-1/4
7 5 V CHEVALIERS Closed strongly H/TT A Badel · K L Man 11 19.0 4
8 9 CHATER PINS XB C Schofield · D A Hayes 1 14.0 4-3/4
9 2 SMART FOLKS B-/P2 H N Wong · C W Chang 9 17.0 5
10 3 FLASH FAMOUS TT B Shinn · C H Yip 5 64.0 5-1/4
11 7 BLOTTING PAPER Led early B T Piccone · R Gibson 8 31.0 7-1/2
12 1 DOUBLE TAKE Closed strongly B K H Chan · C Fownes 12 18.0 7-3/4
13 14 JADE THEATRE B K Teetan · P F Yiu 4 23.0 10-1/2
14 8 DEAL MAKER H/TT2 N Callan · W Y So 3 17.0 12

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FAIRY FLOSS2. SUPER FAST+0.05L3. LADY FIRST+2L4. LONDON LUCKYSTAR+2.25L5. YES WE CAN+2.75L6. PIANO SOLO+3.25L7. V CHEVALIERS+4L8. CHATER PINS+4.75L9. SMART FOLKS+5L10. FLASH FAMOUS+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick PIANO SOLO (17.8%) finished 6th — the winner FAIRY FLOSS was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 PIANO SOLO 17.8% 5.61 6
2 13 FAIRY FLOSS 17.4% 5.76 1
3 9 CHATER PINS 12.1% 8.27 8
4 12 YES WE CAN 9.8% 10.23 5
5 6 LADY FIRST 9.2% 10.85 3
6 1 DOUBLE TAKE 7.4% 13.44 12
7 14 JADE THEATRE 5.6% 17.79 13
8 5 V CHEVALIERS 4.2% 23.70 7
9 10 SUPER FAST 4.0% 24.81 2
10 11 LONDON LUCKYSTAR 3.4% 29.43 4
11 2 SMART FOLKS 2.9% 34.82 9
12 8 DEAL MAKER 2.8% 36.32 14
13 7 BLOTTING PAPER 1.9% 52.04 11
14 3 FLASH FAMOUS 1.5% 67.31 10
PIANO SOLOFAIRY FLOSS — wonCHATER PINSYES WE CANLADY FIRSTDOUBLE TAKEJADE THEATREV CHEVALIERSSUPER FASTLONDON LUCKYSTARSMART FOLKSDEAL MAKERBLOTTING PAPERFLASH FAMOUS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

13 31.5

PLACE

6 23.5

10 29

13 15.5

QUINELLA

10,13 165.5

QUINELLA PLACE

6,10 121

6,13 52

10,13 70.5

FORECAST

13,10 422

TIERCE

13,10,6 1,728

TRIO

6,10,13 500

FIRST 4

6,10,11,13 1,628

QUARTET

13,10,6,11 24,781

All pools (4 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 25.5

A3

A2

5TH DOUBLE

4/10 69

4/13 249.5

TRIPLE TRIO

1,3,6/4,11,12/6,10,13 23,047,784

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

1,3,6/4,11,12/Any Combination 31,105