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Sha Tin · 2021-06-06

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD (AWT) 1650m 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.38.08
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 FAIRY FLOSS Closed strongly CP/H 1.38.08 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · P O'Sullivan 14 3.1 N
2 0 SUPER FAST XB A Hamelin · K W Lui 6 8.3 N
3 0 LADY FIRST Closed strongly CP/H/XB/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz 7 6.5 2
4 0 LONDON LUCKYSTAR Closed strongly PC K C Leung · L Ho 10 13.0 2-1/4
5 0 YES WE CAN Closed strongly TT C L Chau · T P Yung 2 10.0 2-3/4
6 0 PIANO SOLO Closed strongly Z Purton · C S Shum 13 13.0 3-1/4
7 0 V CHEVALIERS Closed strongly H/TT A Badel · K L Man 11 19.0 4
8 0 CHATER PINS XB C Schofield · D A Hayes 1 14.0 4-3/4
9 0 SMART FOLKS B-/P2 H N Wong · C W Chang 9 17.0 5
10 0 FLASH FAMOUS TT B Shinn · C H Yip 5 64.0 5-1/4
11 0 BLOTTING PAPER Led early B T Piccone · R Gibson 8 31.0 7-1/2
12 0 DOUBLE TAKE Closed strongly B K H Chan · C Fownes 12 18.0 7-3/4
13 0 JADE THEATRE B K Teetan · P F Yiu 4 23.0 10-1/2
14 0 DEAL MAKER H/TT2 N Callan · W Y So 3 17.0 12

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2021-06-06 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. FAIRY FLOSS, ridden by J Moreira and trained by P O'Sullivan, won by N, with SUPER FAST second and LADY FIRST third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.1 favourite.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FAIRY FLOSS—2. SUPER FAST+0.05L3. LADY FIRST+2L4. LONDON LUCKYSTAR+2.25L5. YES WE CAN+2.75L6. PIANO SOLO+3.25L7. V CHEVALIERS+4L8. CHATER PINS+4.75L9. SMART FOLKS+5L10. FLASH FAMOUS+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick PIANO SOLO (17.8%) finished 6th — the winner FAIRY FLOSS was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 PIANO SOLO 17.8% 5.61 6
2 0 FAIRY FLOSS 17.4% 5.76 1
3 0 CHATER PINS 12.1% 8.27 8
4 0 YES WE CAN 9.8% 10.23 5
5 0 LADY FIRST 9.2% 10.85 3
6 0 DOUBLE TAKE 7.4% 13.44 12
7 0 JADE THEATRE 5.6% 17.79 13
8 0 V CHEVALIERS 4.2% 23.70 7
9 0 SUPER FAST 4.0% 24.81 2
10 0 LONDON LUCKYSTAR 3.4% 29.43 4
11 0 SMART FOLKS 2.9% 34.82 9
12 0 DEAL MAKER 2.8% 36.32 14
13 0 BLOTTING PAPER 1.9% 52.04 11
14 0 FLASH FAMOUS 1.5% 67.31 10
PIANO SOLOFAIRY FLOSS — wonCHATER PINSYES WE CANLADY FIRSTDOUBLE TAKEJADE THEATREV CHEVALIERSSUPER FASTLONDON LUCKYSTARSMART FOLKSDEAL MAKERBLOTTING PAPERFLASH FAMOUS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

13 31.5

PLACE

6 23.5

10 29

13 15.5

QUINELLA

10,13 165.5

QUINELLA PLACE

6,10 121

6,13 52

10,13 70.5

FORECAST

13,10 422

TIERCE

13,10,6 1,728

TRIO

6,10,13 500

FIRST 4

6,10,11,13 1,628

QUARTET

13,10,6,11 24,781

All pools (4 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A1 25.5

A2 —

5TH DOUBLE

4/10 69

4/13 249.5

TRIPLE TRIO

1,3,6/4,11,12/6,10,13 23,047,784

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

1,3,6/4,11,12/Any Combination 31,105