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Sha Tin · 2021-06-06

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD 1200m Course C 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.09.74
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 MOON PEAKS B/H 1.09.74 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H W Lai · Y S Tsui 5 10.0 1-1/2
2 0 FOR FUN'S SAKE E/TT A Badel · W Y So 10 5.1 1-1/2
3 0 FOX CHEUNGER B/TT T Piccone · K W Lui 9 15.0 1-1/2
4 0 NOBLE MAN B/E/TT J Moreira · J Size 2 5.5 2-1/2
5 0 MANY GAINS CP1/TT- R Maia · L Ho 3 67.0 3-1/4
6 0 GLORIOUS BUDDY K C Leung · D J Hall 4 64.0 3-1/4
7 0 UNIVERSAL CROWN B/XB/TT C L Chau · D J Whyte 1 2.6 3-3/4
8 0 SUPER KIN TT K Teetan · C Fownes 11 12.0 3-3/4
9 0 TIGERLAD B/TT M F Poon · A T Millard 7 11.0 5
10 0 FOCUS CP B Shinn · P F Yiu 8 21.0 5-1/4
11 0 THE ELITES CP1/TT N Callan · F C Lor 12 60.0 7-1/2
12 0 CRUCIATUS XB-/B1/TT H N Wong · C W Chang 6 39.0 7-1/2

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2021-06-06 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. MOON PEAKS, ridden by H W Lai and trained by Y S Tsui, won by 1-1/2, with FOR FUN'S SAKE second and FOX CHEUNGER third. The 2.6 favourite UNIVERSAL CROWN finished 7th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MOON PEAKS—2. FOR FUN'S SAKE+1.5L3. FOX CHEUNGER+1.5L4. NOBLE MAN+2.5L5. MANY GAINS+3.25L6. GLORIOUS BUDDY+3.25L7. UNIVERSAL CROWN+3.75L8. SUPER KIN+3.75L9. TIGERLAD+5L10. FOCUS+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick UNIVERSAL CROWN (25.0%) finished 7th — the winner MOON PEAKS was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 UNIVERSAL CROWN 25.0% 4.01 7
2 0 NOBLE MAN 23.2% 4.31 4
3 0 SUPER KIN 9.8% 10.21 8
4 0 MOON PEAKS 8.2% 12.20 1
5 0 TIGERLAD 8.0% 12.47 9
6 0 FOR FUN'S SAKE 6.9% 14.48 2
7 0 FOCUS 4.9% 20.45 10
8 0 FOX CHEUNGER 3.9% 25.37 3
9 0 CRUCIATUS 3.3% 30.22 12
10 0 MANY GAINS 3.1% 31.98 5
11 0 THE ELITES 2.0% 50.78 11
12 0 GLORIOUS BUDDY 1.7% 59.21 6
UNIVERSAL CROWNNOBLE MANSUPER KINMOON PEAKS — wonTIGERLADFOR FUN'S SAKEFOCUSFOX CHEUNGERCRUCIATUSMANY GAINSTHE ELITESGLORIOUS BUDDY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 101

PLACE

5 28

9 41

12 18.5

QUINELLA

5,12 272.5

QUINELLA PLACE

5,9 149

5,12 85

9,12 107

FORECAST

5,12 613

TIERCE

5,12,9 5,398

TRIO

5,9,12 749

FIRST 4

3,5,9,12 1,054

QUARTET

5,12,9,3 29,480

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 26.5

A3 —

A1 —