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Happy Valley · 2021-06-09

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD 2200m Course B 12 runners

Result

Official · 2.15.87
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 SKY GEM Closed strongly PC- 2.15.87 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · C Fownes 12 10.0 2
2 0 WEALTHY EMPLOYEE Closed strongly B M L Yeung · K H Ting 11 57.0 2
3 0 THE JOY OF GIVING Closed strongly H-/B A Hamelin · C W Chang 5 9.0 5
4 0 HAY RUN V/TT K C Leung · L Ho 3 7.4 7-1/2
5 0 SPEED FORCE CP-/SR/XB C L Chau · D J Whyte 2 9.9 8-1/4
6 0 YOUNG GLORY Closed strongly B/TT M Chadwick · D E Ferraris 6 12.0 9-1/4
7 0 FORTUNE PATROL Closed strongly B/H/XB M F Poon · A T Millard 4 13.0 9-3/4
8 0 CHEERFUL STAR Closed strongly B/TT J Moreira · F C Lor 7 7.8 10-1/2
9 0 GREAT SMART CP/TT H Bentley · K L Man 9 26.0 13
10 0 SPEED TO EXCEED CP/XB N Callan · R Gibson 10 24.0 14
11 0 PRESIDENT STAR Led early B/TT Z Purton · C S Shum 1 5.7 15
12 0 APOLAR WARRIOR V A Badel · P F Yiu 8 4.8 15-1/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2021-06-09 was Class 5 over 2200m, run on GOOD going. SKY GEM, ridden by K Teetan and trained by C Fownes, won by 2, with WEALTHY EMPLOYEE second and THE JOY OF GIVING third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.8 favourite APOLAR WARRIOR finished 12th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SKY GEM—2. WEALTHY EMPLOYEE+2L3. THE JOY OF GIVING+5L4. HAY RUN+7.5L5. SPEED FORCE+8.25L6. YOUNG GLORY+9.25L7. FORTUNE PATROL+9.75L8. CHEERFUL STAR+10.5L9. GREAT SMART+13L10. SPEED TO EXCEED+14L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick PRESIDENT STAR (23.7%) finished 11th — the winner SKY GEM was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 PRESIDENT STAR 23.7% 4.22 11
2 0 CHEERFUL STAR 16.2% 6.18 8
3 0 SPEED FORCE 15.2% 6.56 5
4 0 APOLAR WARRIOR 10.9% 9.15 12
5 0 THE JOY OF GIVING 7.8% 12.81 3
6 0 FORTUNE PATROL 5.7% 17.58 7
7 0 SKY GEM 5.3% 18.74 1
8 0 SPEED TO EXCEED 5.0% 20.03 10
9 0 HAY RUN 3.6% 28.05 4
10 0 GREAT SMART 2.8% 35.84 9
11 0 YOUNG GLORY 2.0% 50.57 6
12 0 WEALTHY EMPLOYEE 1.8% 55.12 2
PRESIDENT STARCHEERFUL STARSPEED FORCEAPOLAR WARRIORTHE JOY OF GIVINGFORTUNE PATROLSKY GEM — wonSPEED TO EXCEEDHAY RUNGREAT SMARTYOUNG GLORYWEALTHY EMPLOYEE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 102

PLACE

8 31

9 142

10 28.5

QUINELLA

8,9 2,678.5

QUINELLA PLACE

8,9 699.5

8,10 151.5

9,10 720

FORECAST

8,9 4,376

TIERCE

8,9,10 35,092

TRIO

8,9,10 5,789

FIRST 4

1,8,9,10 10,244

QUARTET

8,9,10,1 338,445

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A1 —

A2 24.5