Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Happy Valley · 2021-06-09

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD 2200m Course B 12 runners

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2021-06-09 was Class 5 over 2200m, run on GOOD going. SKY GEM, ridden by K Teetan and trained by C Fownes, won by 2, with WEALTHY EMPLOYEE second and THE JOY OF GIVING third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.8 favourite APOLAR WARRIOR finished 12th.

Result

Official · 2.15.87
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 SKY GEM Closed strongly PC- 2.15.87 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · C Fownes 12 10.0 2
2 9 WEALTHY EMPLOYEE Closed strongly B M L Yeung · K H Ting 11 57.0 2
3 10 THE JOY OF GIVING Closed strongly H-/B A Hamelin · C W Chang 5 9.0 5
4 1 HAY RUN V/TT K C Leung · L Ho 3 7.4 7-1/2
5 6 SPEED FORCE CP-/SR/XB C L Chau · D J Whyte 2 9.9 8-1/4
6 12 YOUNG GLORY Closed strongly B/TT M Chadwick · D E Ferraris 6 12.0 9-1/4
7 11 FORTUNE PATROL Closed strongly B/H/XB M F Poon · A T Millard 4 13.0 9-3/4
8 2 CHEERFUL STAR Closed strongly B/TT J Moreira · F C Lor 7 7.8 10-1/2
9 7 GREAT SMART CP/TT H Bentley · K L Man 9 26.0 13
10 3 SPEED TO EXCEED CP/XB N Callan · R Gibson 10 24.0 14
11 4 PRESIDENT STAR Led early B/TT Z Purton · C S Shum 1 5.7 15
12 5 APOLAR WARRIOR V A Badel · P F Yiu 8 4.8 15-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SKY GEM2. WEALTHY EMPLOYEE+2L3. THE JOY OF GIVING+5L4. HAY RUN+7.5L5. SPEED FORCE+8.25L6. YOUNG GLORY+9.25L7. FORTUNE PATROL+9.75L8. CHEERFUL STAR+10.5L9. GREAT SMART+13L10. SPEED TO EXCEED+14L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick PRESIDENT STAR (23.7%) finished 11th — the winner SKY GEM was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 PRESIDENT STAR 23.7% 4.22 11
2 2 CHEERFUL STAR 16.2% 6.18 8
3 6 SPEED FORCE 15.2% 6.56 5
4 5 APOLAR WARRIOR 10.9% 9.15 12
5 10 THE JOY OF GIVING 7.8% 12.81 3
6 11 FORTUNE PATROL 5.7% 17.58 7
7 8 SKY GEM 5.3% 18.74 1
8 3 SPEED TO EXCEED 5.0% 20.03 10
9 1 HAY RUN 3.6% 28.05 4
10 7 GREAT SMART 2.8% 35.84 9
11 12 YOUNG GLORY 2.0% 50.57 6
12 9 WEALTHY EMPLOYEE 1.8% 55.12 2
PRESIDENT STARCHEERFUL STARSPEED FORCEAPOLAR WARRIORTHE JOY OF GIVINGFORTUNE PATROLSKY GEM — wonSPEED TO EXCEEDHAY RUNGREAT SMARTYOUNG GLORYWEALTHY EMPLOYEE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 102

PLACE

8 31

9 142

10 28.5

QUINELLA

8,9 2,678.5

QUINELLA PLACE

8,9 699.5

8,10 151.5

9,10 720

FORECAST

8,9 4,376

TIERCE

8,9,10 35,092

TRIO

8,9,10 5,789

FIRST 4

1,8,9,10 10,244

QUARTET

8,9,10,1 338,445

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A2 24.5

A1