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Happy Valley · 2021-06-09

Race 7

Class 3 GOOD 1650m Course B 12 runners

Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2021-06-09 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. EVERYONE'S DELIGHT, ridden by A Badel and trained by F C Lor, won by 2-1/2, with KA YING EXCELLENT second and SMOOTHIES third. The winner led throughout. The 3.2 favourite SMOOTHIES finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.41.40
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 EVERYONE'S DELIGHT Wire to wire V/TT 1.41.40 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · F C Lor 9 13.0 2-1/2
2 5 KA YING EXCELLENT Closed strongly CP/TT J Moreira · A S Cruz 11 5.5 2-1/2
3 9 SMOOTHIES B/TT Z Purton · C S Shum 7 3.2 3-3/4
4 3 TASHIDELEK Closed strongly B C L Chau · D J Whyte 5 8.0 4
5 11 BRIGHT KID Closed strongly B/XB H N Wong · W Y So 10 47.0 4-3/4
6 2 GIFT OF LIFELINE Closed strongly B K Teetan · A T Millard 1 5.4 5-1/2
7 4 CINQUANTE CINQ M F Poon · T P Yung 8 18.0 7
8 7 CHAMPION PAL Closed strongly B R Maia · P O'Sullivan 2 152.0 7-1/4
9 8 NOBLE STEED B N Callan · K W Lui 3 8.2 9-1/2
10 1 ARTHUR'S KINGDOM H/XB B Shinn · Y S Tsui 6 33.0 10-3/4
11 6 WORLD FAMOUS B/XB H Bentley · P F Yiu 12 10.0 14-1/4
12 10 STAR OF GLORY B- M L Yeung · C W Chang 4 140.0 24-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. EVERYONE'S DELIGHT2. KA YING EXCELLENT+2.5L3. SMOOTHIES+3.75L4. TASHIDELEK+4L5. BRIGHT KID+4.75L6. GIFT OF LIFELINE+5.5L7. CINQUANTE CINQ+7L8. CHAMPION PAL+7.25L9. NOBLE STEED+9.5L10. ARTHUR'S KINGDOM+10.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick SMOOTHIES (27.8%) finished 3rd — the winner EVERYONE'S DELIGHT was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 SMOOTHIES 27.8% 3.60 3
2 5 KA YING EXCELLENT 17.1% 5.84 2
3 2 GIFT OF LIFELINE 16.4% 6.11 6
4 12 EVERYONE'S DELIGHT 13.2% 7.60 1
5 3 TASHIDELEK 6.6% 15.25 4
6 6 WORLD FAMOUS 5.6% 17.74 11
7 8 NOBLE STEED 4.3% 23.34 9
8 4 CINQUANTE CINQ 4.0% 25.00 7
9 11 BRIGHT KID 2.7% 36.65 5
10 1 ARTHUR'S KINGDOM 1.2% 81.82 10
11 7 CHAMPION PAL 0.6% 166.76 8
12 10 STAR OF GLORY 0.5% 190.47 12
SMOOTHIESKA YING EXCELLENTGIFT OF LIFELINEEVERYONE'S DELIGHT — wonTASHIDELEKWORLD FAMOUSNOBLE STEEDCINQUANTE CINQBRIGHT KIDARTHUR'S KINGDOMCHAMPION PALSTAR OF GLORY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 131.5

PLACE

5 20.5

9 13.5

12 34

QUINELLA

5,12 354

QUINELLA PLACE

5,9 38

5,12 127.5

9,12 86

FORECAST

12,5 928

TIERCE

12,5,9 3,163

TRIO

5,9,12 352

FIRST 4

3,5,9,12 675

QUARTET

12,5,9,3 22,795

All pools (5 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

3,6,10/5,9,12 13,414

3 PICK 1

A2

A1

A3 28

6TH DOUBLE

10/5 56

10/12 643

TRIPLE TRIO

5,6,9/3,6,10/5,9,12 749,490

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

5,6,9/3,6,10/Any Combination 2,894