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Sha Tin · 2021-06-13

Race 1

Griffin GOOD 1000m Course C+3 8 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2021-06-13 was Griffin over 1000m, run on GOOD going. CALIFORNIA SPANGLE, ridden by N Callan and trained by A S Cruz, won by 1, with CORDYCEPS SIX second and SMART IDEA third. Victory came as the 2.0 favourite.

Result

Official · 0.55.33
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 CALIFORNIA SPANGLE TT1 0.55.33 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) N Callan · A S Cruz 8 2.0 1
2 1 CORDYCEPS SIX B C L Chau · R Gibson 5 5.2 1
3 8 SMART IDEA TT A Badel · F C Lor 6 6.9 4-1/4
4 6 MIRACLE VICTORY C Schofield · D A Hayes 2 4.9 4-3/4
5 5 DETERMINED J Moreira · J Size 4 8.8 7
6 7 RED BRICK GLORY R Maia · P F Yiu 7 29.0 7-1/2
7 2 BIG BIG WIN B1/TT1 K C Leung · T P Yung 1 39.0 11-1/4
8 4 HANG'S CHOICE H/TT M L Yeung · W Y So 3 72.0 12-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CALIFORNIA SPANGLE2. CORDYCEPS SIX+1L3. SMART IDEA+4.25L4. MIRACLE VICTORY+4.75L5. DETERMINED+7L6. RED BRICK GLORY+7.5L7. BIG BIG WIN+11.25L8. HANG'S CHOICE+12.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick DETERMINED (31.3%) finished 5th — the winner CALIFORNIA SPANGLE was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 DETERMINED 31.3% 3.20 5
2 8 SMART IDEA 27.5% 3.63 3
3 1 CORDYCEPS SIX 16.5% 6.07 2
4 6 MIRACLE VICTORY 8.6% 11.63 4
5 3 CALIFORNIA SPANGLE 7.4% 13.52 1
6 2 BIG BIG WIN 5.9% 16.89 7
7 7 RED BRICK GLORY 2.1% 48.68 6
8 4 HANG'S CHOICE 0.7% 134.77 8
DETERMINEDSMART IDEACORDYCEPS SIXMIRACLE VICTORYCALIFORNIA SPANGLE — wonBIG BIG WINRED BRICK GLORYHANG'S CHOICE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 20.5

PLACE

1 15.5

3 10.1

8 16.5

QUINELLA

1,3 58

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 22.5

1,8 33

3,8 25.5

FORECAST

3,1 92

TIERCE

3,1,8 214

TRIO

1,3,8 58

FIRST 4

1,3,6,8 40

QUARTET

3,1,8,6 484

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A1 15

A3