Sha Tin · 2021-06-13
Race 1
Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2021-06-13 was Griffin over 1000m, run on GOOD going. CALIFORNIA SPANGLE, ridden by N Callan and trained by A S Cruz, won by 1, with CORDYCEPS SIX second and SMART IDEA third. Victory came as the 2.0 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | CALIFORNIA SPANGLE TT1 0.55.33 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) N Callan · A S Cruz | N Callan | A S Cruz | 8 | 2.0 | 1 |
| 2 | 1 | CORDYCEPS SIX B C L Chau · R Gibson | C L Chau | R Gibson | 5 | 5.2 | 1 |
| 3 | 8 | SMART IDEA TT A Badel · F C Lor | A Badel | F C Lor | 6 | 6.9 | 4-1/4 |
| 4 | 6 | MIRACLE VICTORY C Schofield · D A Hayes | C Schofield | D A Hayes | 2 | 4.9 | 4-3/4 |
| 5 | 5 | DETERMINED J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 4 | 8.8 | 7 |
| 6 | 7 | RED BRICK GLORY R Maia · P F Yiu | R Maia | P F Yiu | 7 | 29.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 7 | 2 | BIG BIG WIN B1/TT1 K C Leung · T P Yung | K C Leung | T P Yung | 1 | 39.0 | 11-1/4 |
| 8 | 4 | HANG'S CHOICE H/TT M L Yeung · W Y So | M L Yeung | W Y So | 3 | 72.0 | 12-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | DETERMINED | 31.3% | 3.20 | 5 |
| 2 | 8 | SMART IDEA | 27.5% | 3.63 | 3 |
| 3 | 1 | CORDYCEPS SIX | 16.5% | 6.07 | 2 |
| 4 | 6 | MIRACLE VICTORY | 8.6% | 11.63 | 4 |
| 5 | 3 | CALIFORNIA SPANGLE | 7.4% | 13.52 | 1 |
| 6 | 2 | BIG BIG WIN | 5.9% | 16.89 | 7 |
| 7 | 7 | RED BRICK GLORY | 2.1% | 48.68 | 6 |
| 8 | 4 | HANG'S CHOICE | 0.7% | 134.77 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 20.5
PLACE
1 15.5
3 10.1
8 16.5
QUINELLA
1,3 58
QUINELLA PLACE
1,3 22.5
1,8 33
3,8 25.5
FORECAST
3,1 92
TIERCE
3,1,8 214
TRIO
1,3,8 58
FIRST 4
1,3,6,8 40
QUARTET
3,1,8,6 484
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 15
A3 —