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Sha Tin · 2021-06-13

Race 7

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course C+3 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.21.92
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 BULB PALS Closed strongly TT1 1.21.92 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Shinn · C H Yip 6 40.0 HD
2 0 GRACYLOVE Closed strongly C Schofield · D J Hall 10 3.2 HD
3 0 MASTER HERO Closed strongly XB/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 14 7.0 1/2
4 0 CHARIZARD Closed strongly B/TT T Piccone · D E Ferraris 3 10.0 3/4
5 0 FORMULA EXCEL Closed strongly TT M L Yeung · C Fownes 12 135.0 1
6 0 LUCKY PUZZLE SR C Wong · Y S Tsui 2 75.0 1-3/4
7 0 LOYAL BABY Z Purton · F C Lor 8 8.9 1-3/4
8 0 LOVE ME MORE K C Leung · P F Yiu 7 12.0 2
9 0 AUGUST MOON Led early B R Maia · P O'Sullivan 1 12.0 3-1/4
10 0 INNO LEGEND V M Chadwick · K L Man 4 13.0 3-1/2
11 0 GALLANT CAVALIER B/TT1 C Y Ho · A T Millard 9 60.0 4
12 0 PARTY GENIUS CP/XB A Badel · D J Whyte 5 6.6 4
13 0 SUNNY BABY B A Hamelin · D A Hayes 11 13.0 4-1/4
14 0 RAGING BLAZE P/TT J Moreira · J Size 13 35.0 6-3/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2021-06-13 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. BULB PALS, ridden by B Shinn and trained by C H Yip, won by HD, with GRACYLOVE second and MASTER HERO third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.2 favourite GRACYLOVE finished 2nd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BULB PALS—2. GRACYLOVE+0.2L3. MASTER HERO+0.5L4. CHARIZARD+0.75L5. FORMULA EXCEL+1L6. LUCKY PUZZLE+1.75L7. LOYAL BABY+1.75L8. LOVE ME MORE+2L9. AUGUST MOON+3.25L10. INNO LEGEND+3.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick GRACYLOVE (23.7%) finished 2nd — the winner BULB PALS was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 GRACYLOVE 23.7% 4.22 2
2 0 MASTER HERO 18.5% 5.41 3
3 0 PARTY GENIUS 18.4% 5.44 12
4 0 LOYAL BABY 10.4% 9.63 7
5 0 INNO LEGEND 5.5% 18.29 10
6 0 AUGUST MOON 5.2% 19.37 9
7 0 LOVE ME MORE 4.0% 24.92 8
8 0 SUNNY BABY 2.9% 34.97 13
9 0 BULB PALS 2.7% 36.49 1
10 0 LUCKY PUZZLE 2.7% 37.45 6
11 0 CHARIZARD 2.3% 44.12 4
12 0 RAGING BLAZE 2.1% 48.20 14
13 0 FORMULA EXCEL 0.9% 109.53 5
14 0 GALLANT CAVALIER 0.9% 115.83 11
GRACYLOVEMASTER HEROPARTY GENIUSLOYAL BABYINNO LEGENDAUGUST MOONLOVE ME MORESUNNY BABYBULB PALS — wonLUCKY PUZZLECHARIZARDRAGING BLAZEFORMULA EXCELGALLANT CAVALIER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 405

PLACE

2 23.5

4 14.5

6 103.5

QUINELLA

4,6 757.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 47

2,6 508.5

4,6 263

FORECAST

6,4 2,179

TIERCE

6,4,2 13,633

TRIO

2,4,6 1,808

FIRST 4

2,4,6,10 3,001

QUARTET

6,4,2,10 89,273

All pools (3 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A2 —

A3 25

6TH DOUBLE

5/4 86

5/6 7,616.5

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

5,8,12/4,5,8/Any Combination 431,485