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Sha Tin · 2021-06-13

Race 7

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2021-06-13 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. BULB PALS, ridden by B Shinn and trained by C H Yip, won by HD, with GRACYLOVE second and MASTER HERO third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.2 favourite GRACYLOVE finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.21.92
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 BULB PALS Closed strongly TT1 1.21.92 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Shinn · C H Yip 6 40.0 HD
2 4 GRACYLOVE Closed strongly C Schofield · D J Hall 10 3.2 HD
3 2 MASTER HERO Closed strongly XB/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 14 7.0 1/2
4 10 CHARIZARD Closed strongly B/TT T Piccone · D E Ferraris 3 10.0 3/4
5 14 FORMULA EXCEL Closed strongly TT M L Yeung · C Fownes 12 135.0 1
6 13 LUCKY PUZZLE SR C Wong · Y S Tsui 2 75.0 1-3/4
7 1 LOYAL BABY Z Purton · F C Lor 8 8.9 1-3/4
8 3 LOVE ME MORE K C Leung · P F Yiu 7 12.0 2
9 9 AUGUST MOON Led early B R Maia · P O'Sullivan 1 12.0 3-1/4
10 7 INNO LEGEND V M Chadwick · K L Man 4 13.0 3-1/2
11 8 GALLANT CAVALIER B/TT1 C Y Ho · A T Millard 9 60.0 4
12 5 PARTY GENIUS CP/XB A Badel · D J Whyte 5 6.6 4
13 11 SUNNY BABY B A Hamelin · D A Hayes 11 13.0 4-1/4
14 12 RAGING BLAZE P/TT J Moreira · J Size 13 35.0 6-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BULB PALS2. GRACYLOVE+0.2L3. MASTER HERO+0.5L4. CHARIZARD+0.75L5. FORMULA EXCEL+1L6. LUCKY PUZZLE+1.75L7. LOYAL BABY+1.75L8. LOVE ME MORE+2L9. AUGUST MOON+3.25L10. INNO LEGEND+3.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick GRACYLOVE (23.7%) finished 2nd — the winner BULB PALS was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 GRACYLOVE 23.7% 4.22 2
2 2 MASTER HERO 18.5% 5.41 3
3 5 PARTY GENIUS 18.4% 5.44 12
4 1 LOYAL BABY 10.4% 9.63 7
5 7 INNO LEGEND 5.5% 18.29 10
6 9 AUGUST MOON 5.2% 19.37 9
7 3 LOVE ME MORE 4.0% 24.92 8
8 11 SUNNY BABY 2.9% 34.97 13
9 6 BULB PALS 2.7% 36.49 1
10 13 LUCKY PUZZLE 2.7% 37.45 6
11 10 CHARIZARD 2.3% 44.12 4
12 12 RAGING BLAZE 2.1% 48.20 14
13 14 FORMULA EXCEL 0.9% 109.53 5
14 8 GALLANT CAVALIER 0.9% 115.83 11
GRACYLOVEMASTER HEROPARTY GENIUSLOYAL BABYINNO LEGENDAUGUST MOONLOVE ME MORESUNNY BABYBULB PALS — wonLUCKY PUZZLECHARIZARDRAGING BLAZEFORMULA EXCELGALLANT CAVALIER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 405

PLACE

2 23.5

4 14.5

6 103.5

QUINELLA

4,6 757.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 47

2,6 508.5

4,6 263

FORECAST

6,4 2,179

TIERCE

6,4,2 13,633

TRIO

2,4,6 1,808

FIRST 4

2,4,6,10 3,001

QUARTET

6,4,2,10 89,273

All pools (3 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A1

A3 25

6TH DOUBLE

5/4 86

5/6 7,616.5

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

5,8,12/4,5,8/Any Combination 431,485