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Sha Tin · 2021-06-13

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2021-06-13 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. CITY LEGEND, ridden by C L Chau and trained by T P Yung, won by 1/2, with AWE second and FREE FOAL third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.0 favourite PLIKCLONE finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.21.20
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 CITY LEGEND Closed strongly B/TT 1.21.20 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · T P Yung 9 14.0 1/2
2 4 AWE Closed strongly B2 B Shinn · D A Hayes 8 15.0 1/2
3 8 FREE FOAL M Chadwick · F C Lor 6 8.2 3/4
4 9 PLIKCLONE B Z Purton · D J Hall 4 3.0 1
5 13 VIVA POPCORN Closed strongly H/TT M L Yeung · A S Cruz 13 87.0 2-1/4
6 11 COPARTNER ERA B A Badel · W Y So 3 7.4 4-3/4
7 7 SUPER MISSION Led early H-/CP J Moreira · P F Yiu 5 3.7 7-3/4
8 12 GOLDEN FOUR Closed strongly P M F Poon · C W Chang 12 23.0 8
9 10 ISLAND SUNSHINE PC R Maia · K W Lui 1 39.0 8-1/4
10 14 CIGAR BUDDIES B1 H N Wong · K H Ting 7 135.0 11-1/2
11 1 DECISIVE ACTION CP/TT K Teetan · C S Shum 14 24.0 13-1/4
12 3 JUDY'S STAR B K C Leung · P O'Sullivan 10 33.0 13-3/4
13 6 SALUTATION B1 A Hamelin · J Size 2 16.0 14-1/2
14 2 PASSING FASHION H C Wong · C H Yip 11 175.0 37-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CITY LEGEND2. AWE+0.5L3. FREE FOAL+0.75L4. PLIKCLONE+1L5. VIVA POPCORN+2.25L6. COPARTNER ERA+4.75L7. SUPER MISSION+7.75L8. GOLDEN FOUR+8L9. ISLAND SUNSHINE+8.25L10. CIGAR BUDDIES+11.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick SUPER MISSION (21.3%) finished 7th — the winner CITY LEGEND was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 SUPER MISSION 21.3% 4.69 7
2 9 PLIKCLONE 17.5% 5.70 4
3 8 FREE FOAL 14.7% 6.82 3
4 6 SALUTATION 9.4% 10.60 13
5 4 AWE 7.5% 13.32 2
6 11 COPARTNER ERA 6.5% 15.35 6
7 5 CITY LEGEND 6.0% 16.68 1
8 10 ISLAND SUNSHINE 5.4% 18.38 9
9 1 DECISIVE ACTION 5.4% 18.55 11
10 3 JUDY'S STAR 2.8% 35.91 12
11 12 GOLDEN FOUR 1.4% 70.91 8
12 14 CIGAR BUDDIES 0.8% 124.40 10
13 13 VIVA POPCORN 0.7% 141.66 5
14 2 PASSING FASHION 0.5% 201.58 14
SUPER MISSIONPLIKCLONEFREE FOALSALUTATIONAWECOPARTNER ERACITY LEGEND — wonISLAND SUNSHINEDECISIVE ACTIONJUDY'S STARGOLDEN FOURCIGAR BUDDIESVIVA POPCORNPASSING FASHION

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 146

PLACE

4 35.5

5 38.5

8 25.5

QUINELLA

4,5 1,008.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,5 257.5

4,8 197

5,8 153

FORECAST

5,4 1,688

TIERCE

5,4,8 10,862

TRIO

4,5,8 2,206

FIRST 4

4,5,8,9 967

QUARTET

5,4,8,9 31,213

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A3 34

A2

5TH DOUBLE

5/4 423

5/5 2,251.5