Sha Tin · 2021-06-26
Race 5
Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2021-06-26 was Class 3 over 2000m, run on GOOD TO YIELDING going. SUPERBELLA, ridden by J Moreira and trained by F C Lor, won by 1-3/4, with ENTRUSTED second and BLASTOISE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 5.1 favourite ARROGANT finished 14th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13 | SUPERBELLA Closed strongly V/TT 2.02.11 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · F C Lor | J Moreira | F C Lor | 10 | 7.6 | 1-3/4 |
| 2 | 10 | ENTRUSTED Closed strongly CP/TT A Badel · W Y So | A Badel | W Y So | 9 | 6.8 | 1-3/4 |
| 3 | 8 | BLASTOISE C L Chau · D E Ferraris | C L Chau | D E Ferraris | 14 | 18.0 | 2 |
| 4 | 12 | MURRAY'S PARTNERS Closed strongly V K Teetan · C H Yip | K Teetan | C H Yip | 6 | 8.5 | 4 |
| 5 | 3 | TASHIDELEK Closed strongly B T Piccone · D J Whyte | T Piccone | D J Whyte | 3 | 15.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 6 | 7 | ABOVE Closed strongly B/TT A Hamelin · A T Millard | A Hamelin | A T Millard | 4 | 6.8 | 5-1/4 |
| 7 | 2 | VINCY Closed strongly CP/SR/TT H Bentley · D J Whyte | H Bentley | D J Whyte | 8 | 15.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 8 | 11 | GOD OF DRAGON Closed strongly H/XB/TT H T Mo · A S Cruz | H T Mo | A S Cruz | 11 | 36.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 9 | 9 | NATURAL STORM B M L Yeung · P F Yiu | M L Yeung | P F Yiu | 5 | 10.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 10 | 5 | LONDON HALL Closed strongly B K C Leung · D J Hall | K C Leung | D J Hall | 7 | 29.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 11 | 14 | AI ONE CP- M Chadwick · D A Hayes | M Chadwick | D A Hayes | 2 | 17.0 | 12-1/2 |
| 12 | 4 | ENZEMBLE H/XB M F Poon · K L Man | M F Poon | K L Man | 12 | 16.0 | 14-1/2 |
| 13 | 1 | SMILING TIME CP1 C Schofield · K H Ting | C Schofield | K H Ting | 13 | 64.0 | 35 |
| 14 | 6 | ARROGANT Led early B/TT N Callan · C Fownes | N Callan | C Fownes | 1 | 5.1 | 77-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13 | SUPERBELLA | 23.7% | 4.21 | 1 |
| 2 | 6 | ARROGANT | 18.5% | 5.41 | 14 |
| 3 | 2 | VINCY | 7.9% | 12.68 | 7 |
| 4 | 7 | ABOVE | 7.1% | 14.17 | 6 |
| 5 | 9 | NATURAL STORM | 6.4% | 15.71 | 9 |
| 6 | 12 | MURRAY'S PARTNERS | 5.9% | 17.05 | 4 |
| 7 | 10 | ENTRUSTED | 5.7% | 17.47 | 2 |
| 8 | 8 | BLASTOISE | 5.6% | 17.82 | 3 |
| 9 | 11 | GOD OF DRAGON | 5.1% | 19.54 | 8 |
| 10 | 4 | ENZEMBLE | 4.4% | 22.79 | 12 |
| 11 | 3 | TASHIDELEK | 3.7% | 27.00 | 5 |
| 12 | 1 | SMILING TIME | 2.3% | 43.85 | 13 |
| 13 | 5 | LONDON HALL | 2.3% | 43.98 | 10 |
| 14 | 14 | AI ONE | 1.5% | 66.98 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
13 76.5
PLACE
8 56
10 22
13 32.5
QUINELLA
10,13 238
QUINELLA PLACE
8,10 249
8,13 296
10,13 107.5
FORECAST
13,10 421
TIERCE
13,10,8 10,375
TRIO
8,10,13 1,916
FIRST 4
8,10,12,13 3,420
QUARTET
13,10,8,12 75,909
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A3 —
A2 29
4TH DOUBLE
7/10 70.5
7/13 158