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Sha Tin · 2021-06-26

Race 5

Class 3 GOOD TO YIELDING 2000m Course B 14 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2021-06-26 was Class 3 over 2000m, run on GOOD TO YIELDING going. SUPERBELLA, ridden by J Moreira and trained by F C Lor, won by 1-3/4, with ENTRUSTED second and BLASTOISE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 5.1 favourite ARROGANT finished 14th.

Result

Official · 2.02.11
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 13 SUPERBELLA Closed strongly V/TT 2.02.11 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · F C Lor 10 7.6 1-3/4
2 10 ENTRUSTED Closed strongly CP/TT A Badel · W Y So 9 6.8 1-3/4
3 8 BLASTOISE C L Chau · D E Ferraris 14 18.0 2
4 12 MURRAY'S PARTNERS Closed strongly V K Teetan · C H Yip 6 8.5 4
5 3 TASHIDELEK Closed strongly B T Piccone · D J Whyte 3 15.0 5-1/4
6 7 ABOVE Closed strongly B/TT A Hamelin · A T Millard 4 6.8 5-1/4
7 2 VINCY Closed strongly CP/SR/TT H Bentley · D J Whyte 8 15.0 5-3/4
8 11 GOD OF DRAGON Closed strongly H/XB/TT H T Mo · A S Cruz 11 36.0 6-1/2
9 9 NATURAL STORM B M L Yeung · P F Yiu 5 10.0 6-3/4
10 5 LONDON HALL Closed strongly B K C Leung · D J Hall 7 29.0 7-1/4
11 14 AI ONE CP- M Chadwick · D A Hayes 2 17.0 12-1/2
12 4 ENZEMBLE H/XB M F Poon · K L Man 12 16.0 14-1/2
13 1 SMILING TIME CP1 C Schofield · K H Ting 13 64.0 35
14 6 ARROGANT Led early B/TT N Callan · C Fownes 1 5.1 77-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUPERBELLA2. ENTRUSTED+1.75L3. BLASTOISE+2L4. MURRAY'S PARTNERS+4L5. TASHIDELEK+5.25L6. ABOVE+5.25L7. VINCY+5.75L8. GOD OF DRAGON+6.5L9. NATURAL STORM+6.75L10. LONDON HALL+7.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick SUPERBELLA (23.7%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 13 SUPERBELLA 23.7% 4.21 1
2 6 ARROGANT 18.5% 5.41 14
3 2 VINCY 7.9% 12.68 7
4 7 ABOVE 7.1% 14.17 6
5 9 NATURAL STORM 6.4% 15.71 9
6 12 MURRAY'S PARTNERS 5.9% 17.05 4
7 10 ENTRUSTED 5.7% 17.47 2
8 8 BLASTOISE 5.6% 17.82 3
9 11 GOD OF DRAGON 5.1% 19.54 8
10 4 ENZEMBLE 4.4% 22.79 12
11 3 TASHIDELEK 3.7% 27.00 5
12 1 SMILING TIME 2.3% 43.85 13
13 5 LONDON HALL 2.3% 43.98 10
14 14 AI ONE 1.5% 66.98 11
SUPERBELLA — wonARROGANTVINCYABOVENATURAL STORMMURRAY'S PARTNERSENTRUSTEDBLASTOISEGOD OF DRAGONENZEMBLETASHIDELEKSMILING TIMELONDON HALLAI ONE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

13 76.5

PLACE

8 56

10 22

13 32.5

QUINELLA

10,13 238

QUINELLA PLACE

8,10 249

8,13 296

10,13 107.5

FORECAST

13,10 421

TIERCE

13,10,8 10,375

TRIO

8,10,13 1,916

FIRST 4

8,10,12,13 3,420

QUARTET

13,10,8,12 75,909

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A3

A2 29

4TH DOUBLE

7/10 70.5

7/13 158