Sha Tin · 2021-06-26

Race 8

Class 3 GOOD 1400m Course B 14 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2021-06-26 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. BELUGA, ridden by Z Purton and trained by D J Hall, won by 3/4, with LEAP OF FAITH second and HORSESAIN BOLT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.8 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.21.68

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	2	BELUGA Closed strongly H 1.21.68 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · D J Hall	Z Purton	D J Hall	5	131 lb	3.8	3/4
2	10	LEAP OF FAITH Closed strongly J Moreira · J Size	J Moreira	J Size	10	121 lb	6.3	3/4
3	7	HORSESAIN BOLT Closed strongly B/XB C L Chau · D J Whyte	C L Chau	D J Whyte	6	120 lb	4.4	1-1/4
4	1	INVINCIBLE MISSILE Closed strongly V-/B2/TT K Teetan · C Fownes	K Teetan	C Fownes	8	132 lb	6.7	3-3/4
5	12	XIANG YIN Closed strongly TT A Hamelin · F C Lor	A Hamelin	F C Lor	2	120 lb	16.0	4-1/4
6	14	CASIMIRO Closed strongly A Badel · P O'Sullivan	A Badel	P O'Sullivan	13	118 lb	40.0	4-1/2
7	5	YO BEAUTY Led early CP/H/TT N Callan · A S Cruz	N Callan	A S Cruz	12	128 lb	46.0	4-1/2
8	13	CHEERFUL DAYS B C Y Ho · K W Lui	C Y Ho	K W Lui	4	119 lb	9.5	4-3/4
9	9	FANTASTIC SHOW Closed strongly B H T Mo · Y S Tsui	H T Mo	Y S Tsui	3	118 lb	28.0	5-1/4
10	6	KASI FARASI T Piccone · C H Yip	T Piccone	C H Yip	11	127 lb	43.0	5-1/4
11	8	WIN WIN Closed strongly B M Chadwick · T P Yung	M Chadwick	T P Yung	9	124 lb	23.0	5-3/4
12	11	PLEASANT ENDEAVOR K C Leung · P F Yiu	K C Leung	P F Yiu	7	121 lb	10.0	8
13	4	OUR CREED M L Yeung · K H Ting	M L Yeung	K H Ting	1	129 lb	111.0	14
14	3	LINCOLN BRIGHT H/XB/TT H N Wong · R Gibson	H N Wong	R Gibson	14	126 lb	262.0	20-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21

The model's top pick BELUGA (21.2%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	2	BELUGA	21.2%	4.72	1	3.8
2	7	HORSESAIN BOLT	19.5%	5.12	3	4.4
3	10	LEAP OF FAITH	15.1%	6.62	2	6.3
4	11	PLEASANT ENDEAVOR	9.9%	10.05	12	10.0
5	12	XIANG YIN	7.6%	13.19	5	16.0
6	13	CHEERFUL DAYS	6.3%	15.90	8	9.5
7	6	KASI FARASI	4.8%	20.72	10	43.0
8	9	FANTASTIC SHOW	3.9%	25.97	9	28.0
9	5	YO BEAUTY	3.2%	31.63	7	46.0
10	1	INVINCIBLE MISSILE	2.9%	34.86	4	6.7
11	14	CASIMIRO	2.4%	42.02	6	40.0
12	8	WIN WIN	2.4%	42.35	11	23.0
13	4	OUR CREED	0.5%	213.37	13	111.0
14	3	LINCOLN BRIGHT	0.4%	242.96	14	262.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 38.5

PLACE

2 16

7 15.5

10 19

QUINELLA

2,10 126

QUINELLA PLACE

2,7 34

2,10 49

7,10 46.5

FORECAST

2,10 224

TIERCE

2,10,7 457

TRIO

2,7,10 90

FIRST 4

1,2,7,10 146

QUARTET

2,10,7,1 2,151

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 24

A3 —

A2 —

7TH DOUBLE

12/2 837.5

12/10 162

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